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Decided to make adjustments on the way I blog & share due to time constraints and other commitments. In the coming weeks you should see them. Short updates but more frequent & concise.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Aboi's Updates For February 2014 (Welcoming the Horse)


IKEA please no more horse meat scandal....


Here's the link for the previous month's market sense: Aboi's Updates for January 2014
For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.
  1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
  2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2

As I have anticipated in Jan-> "trend looks increasingly bearish". "Therefore hold Bursa would be back to trading sideways in January between 1800-1850. Though I am tempted to add another support line of 1750 let's hold that until the month of February." Bursa has now slipped past my 1st support line even before the month of February; this proves that market are very jittery at the moment. My risk evaluation still stands firm. For the year 2014, the main risks are likely to be on the sharp sell in US bond yields backed by news on Fed tapering or much stronger US economy growth. The latter is already taking shape with money flowing back to advanced economies after foreign holdings are selling off EM assets as evident from fumbling stock exchanges across EMs and their currencies weakening against the US dollar. This is not going to end yet as there is still $65 billion more to taper. What we saw was just $10 billion! 

However some good news to RIDE ON; [1] recent sell off looks to be supported, I suspect money from weak holdings are transferring hands towards more resilient fundamentally backed counters as blue chips are keeping Bursa steady. [2] RSI and MACD indicators are trending towards a reverse in trend. As such my new resistance levels are 1825 and 1850 with the new support lines at 1780 and 1750. In my opinion, I think February will be a month where Bursa trade sideways as companies continue to release their 2013 earnings report.

Second my portfolio managed to crawl up by a commendable ~RM1500 in value across most of my holdings even though Bursa has deteriorated by -4.4%! (1872 to 1789). This also makes me confident that my portfolio has strong holdings backed with enough diversity. As published in one of my Jan article I am going to invest roughly about 25% of my cash balance in Aberdeen's Islamic World Equity Fund. I will still reserve some cash for I am looking at another fund (focusing on small caps because I don't have the time for it) and also for possible gold buy when the price is right. 

As usual AMP Capital has a really good compressed weekly information (freely available, no sign ups) on weekly global market & global economic updates. It is usually updated every Monday afternoon so go read it when you have the time.

About my others thoughts for 2014 pls look at: 
#1 A possible buy of gold asset: A fool and his gold are soon parted
#2 What to be aware of: (MYR, The Gohmen, Interest Rates, Property - The Linkages

Portfolio composition. Equities 50%, Mixed Assets 15%, REITs 10%, Bonds 5% and Cash 20%.
Targets for returns p.a. Equities type 12%, Mixed Assets 8%, REITs 6%, Bonds 5% and Cash 3.75%.
*Supermax First Interim Single-Tier Dividend of 4%.

#1 Portfolio target for the fourth portfolio year @ RM140k for April 2014 has already EXCEEDED. The TWRR (time weighted annual return rate is now at 11.33% vs my target of 8.80%).
#2 Overall awesome gains in 2013. I am more optimistic about my buying chances in 2014 yet at the same time I must be cautious as upside is more limited.

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.

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