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Sunday, May 29, 2016

June Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)

**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**

This is the 11th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).

Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 1.75.

May 2016
Oil prices have been boosted by a number of factors lately, including the unscheduled production outages, continued output decreases in the U.S. and strong demand for gasoline at the start of the driving season - Summer.

Yellen surprised market participants on Friday by suggesting that a decision to tighten the monetary policy is possible this summer - meaning an US interest rate hike might happen. This has put pressure on Emerging Market currencies including the Ringgit.

Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?
- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.
- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.
- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.
- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.
- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.
- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.

How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? 
- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.

Aboi's June'16 Prediction Analysis

RM/L between Apr and May is very contrasting: 1.40 vs 1.61. Average oil price jumped from $42.71 to $47.43 (11.05%) and so did a weaker MYR this time (3.90 -> 4.04) a decrease by 3.6%. The verdict by computation is clear, I will predict that fuel price to be increased by 20 sen to RM1.90 for RON95. However I cannot discount that there is a possibility that price will be maintained due to the two by-elections in Sungai Besar in Selangor state and for Kuala Kangsar in the northern Perak region which will be held on June 18. This has happened before back in May 2015!

To be safe just fill your tank as it is near impossible in which prices will be reduced.

Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 1.75.

**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**