tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38633470220212231382024-02-21T05:12:49.134+08:00Aboi's Blog: What You Don't Learn In SchoolInteresting articles, information and my thoughtsIntelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.comBlogger276125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-19309721988072398712017-02-27T21:11:00.001+08:002017-02-27T21:11:57.592+08:00March Forecast of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is </span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">easier to forecast the direction of fuel price</b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">February 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">A rather interesting month for oil. There is speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will manage to ease a global supply glut. However America’s crude producers, which are increasing output, aren’t so sure. They’ve been hedging against price declines for this year and 2018. My guess is that oil will not go above $60, and the reason for the ceiling is the tremendous resilience of U.S. shale industry. It has been proven again and again.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">The ringgit is not performing up to par despite the latest data showing that the country’s international reserves are rising. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Bank Negara’s international reserves, which are now at US$95bil, are set to be on the uptrend due to measures taken by the central bank since Nov 11 last year. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">The ringgit is now at RM4.44 against the US dollar. It has appreciated by about 1.3% against the US dollar, way below the amount that the other currencies in the region have appreciated against the US dollar. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Foreign money is coming into the region and it is obvious that Indonesia is the best destination not Malaysia. Also Malaysia's</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> creditworthiness worsened, deficit exploding to 4% of GDP </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">business and investment "conflicts of interest" don’t pay.</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><u>Aboi's Mar'17 Forecast Analysis</u></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdsfAHve2DiOuZ8y2w00QeWcxY4JpkVS-vY6vFMsXKhEPNzkouJXwOG9u3CFThsqMBpkkhy5rwThJ46Qp9mDNXlLYhNA47oGdnig1Xc4tP_XYbp7mGz1yqvUxV3FuGuB-qAl1fiyCNp4kf/s1600/Image+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdsfAHve2DiOuZ8y2w00QeWcxY4JpkVS-vY6vFMsXKhEPNzkouJXwOG9u3CFThsqMBpkkhy5rwThJ46Qp9mDNXlLYhNA47oGdnig1Xc4tP_XYbp7mGz1yqvUxV3FuGuB-qAl1fiyCNp4kf/s640/Image+2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">MYR maintained its weakness once again (@ 4.44), there are no signs of strengthening so far. However as consolidation global oil price on average went down by less than $1 (57.67 to 56.98) hence the RM/L between January and February weaken: 2.16 vs 2.12. Nevertheless it remains high.</span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> </span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">I am forecasting either current prices to stay or it may go up further by 5 sen (RM2.30->RM2.35) for RON 95</span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">. Bear in mind that the APM is around RM 2.44 so somewhere in the middleman (oil company or petrol dealer) field is taking a profit cut by selling lower than the APM price point.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous forecasts since the beginning. My forecasts are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit and domestic political matter.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3OQRfni5KFzuxGzBv-yT6sv3EFMI0QTCRUH8arsEJb6nVdzxARyaJFCdkKIyXfUBCjE7kc5eFVWO1WRugKXNVkVJ1M9Kh2c7yctHSdWd9M_UOz4lnk_DCVsnbjk1xn8oI8FNjq7n69HaJ/s1600/Image+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3OQRfni5KFzuxGzBv-yT6sv3EFMI0QTCRUH8arsEJb6nVdzxARyaJFCdkKIyXfUBCjE7kc5eFVWO1WRugKXNVkVJ1M9Kh2c7yctHSdWd9M_UOz4lnk_DCVsnbjk1xn8oI8FNjq7n69HaJ/s640/Image+3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to forecast the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-60461900100664022402017-01-29T13:35:00.000+08:002017-01-30T09:44:14.409+08:00February Forecast of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is </span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">easier to forecast the direction of fuel price</b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">January 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Oil prices have been falling slightly since the New Year. After a bullish announcement from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and production cuts by non-OPEC nations, the narrative has become bearish, focused on drilling for U.S. shale oil, as well as the failure of some nations to observe calls to cut output. However </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">fundamentals are being unduly influenced by concerns about higher rig counts and the lack of compliance by OPEC oil production cut compliance. Price seems to be holding at this range $50 to $60 but there could be upside during 2017 U.S. summer driving season; late May to early September.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">A somber month for the Malaysian Ringgit. BNM maintains its policy rate unchanged at 3.00% in January. The decision to hold the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged suggests that the Central Bank is more worried about supporting the ringgit than boosting Malaysia’s sluggish economy. The ringgit is Asia’s worst-performing currency since Trump’s surprising victory in the U.S. presidential elections—it has fallen more than 5% since then.</span><br />
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<b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><u>Aboi's Feb'17 Forecast Analysis</u></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhijeFKcN_7BkWf9kqZxb9DxU4UHvNCuUgLKz3B0VVzF0QKmij2y65ExlJyuMnHsAGon7vSZfa_f9tiz-SLBtv1XExgj6EZlObTyZN8BiDw_QI3kFpcpEy3duqoEkVQ4taJvEvkrsmdSvff/s1600/Image+18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhijeFKcN_7BkWf9kqZxb9DxU4UHvNCuUgLKz3B0VVzF0QKmij2y65ExlJyuMnHsAGon7vSZfa_f9tiz-SLBtv1XExgj6EZlObTyZN8BiDw_QI3kFpcpEy3duqoEkVQ4taJvEvkrsmdSvff/s640/Image+18.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">MYR maintained its weakness and is unchanged (@ 4.46). However this is overshadowed by global oil price which on average went up by $1 ($56.69 to $ 57.67) hence the RM/L between December and January actually weaken: 2.12 vs 2.16. </span><b><span style="color: blue;">This round I am forecasting either current prices to stay or it may go up to 10 sen (RM2.20) for RON 95</span></b><span style="color: #444444;">. Since it is Chinese New Year if you have the chance go and fill it up as early as possible to be on the safe side.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous forecasts since the beginning. My forecasts are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit and domestic political matter.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwsYPlEOzXE2ZaL6JMCDJGFTDYKdnoTaNUAmfXVHfodqnHMUqmF2CYlamE2hs-eHuxpuKxdp5j-dzZURCP_VofaJ3FmSfL8ABP1qcc9xYfb1Be98-TuubliLjGzAANdXeJ9kk1iqtcsH7y/s1600/Image+19.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwsYPlEOzXE2ZaL6JMCDJGFTDYKdnoTaNUAmfXVHfodqnHMUqmF2CYlamE2hs-eHuxpuKxdp5j-dzZURCP_VofaJ3FmSfL8ABP1qcc9xYfb1Be98-TuubliLjGzAANdXeJ9kk1iqtcsH7y/s640/Image+19.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to forecast the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-63553858508456587592016-12-29T17:26:00.000+08:002016-12-29T17:26:52.399+08:00January Forecast of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is </span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">easier to forecast the direction of fuel price</b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">December 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Oil prices have gained 25 percent since mid-November, helped by expectations for OPEC's supply cut and solid U.S. economic figures that have also bolstered equity prices. Nevertheless the market </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">is still taking a wait-and-see approach on the official start of the landmark deal reached by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and several non-OPEC members to reduce their output. The deal is set to kick in from Jan. 1. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">OPEC and non-OPEC producers are expected to lower production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), with Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, agreeing to bear the lion's share of the cuts. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">If there's any misstep or any indication of disagreement to (the deal), we would see crude prices dropping back.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">The Malaysian ringgit has fallen to its lowest since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, as dollar bullishness and domestic economic weaknesses weigh on the beleaguered currency. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">The US Federal Reserve raised its target federal funds rate to a range of 0.50 to 0.75% on Dec 14 contributing towards Ringgit's weakness. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">The Fed, which raised interest rates last week, has penciled in three rate increases in 2017. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, has also been moving to clamp down on non-deliverable forward trades to curb speculative activity on the offshore market, causing some concerns in the currency trade and prompting outflows. The currency also came under pressure due to the</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> political scandal in the country over Malaysia's deeply indebted sovereign fund.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Investigations and court cases were continuing globally into allegations that billions of dollars were looted from Malaysian state development fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's Jan'17 Forecast Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpvLzywA2bzlse5TeW8QpDU8m0s9HKBdXAj8yM_S5-EYiRHKSkuLky0Qu64_ZB0pl4rsHr8TorlhwXKhKP9LBPm5afQ9JCattJB5L-g3ozy8gxUG7Y0ZZtyjL-qokhgcN1pXYUC20diSqM/s1600/Image+16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpvLzywA2bzlse5TeW8QpDU8m0s9HKBdXAj8yM_S5-EYiRHKSkuLky0Qu64_ZB0pl4rsHr8TorlhwXKhKP9LBPm5afQ9JCattJB5L-g3ozy8gxUG7Y0ZZtyjL-qokhgcN1pXYUC20diSqM/s640/Image+16.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">MYR continues to slide downhill yet again (4.32 to 4.46). This time it really is a double whammy as the </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">average oil price went up from $49.12 to $56.69 so the R</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">M/L between November and December weaken: 1.78 vs 2.12.</span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I am forecasting that fuel price to go sky high as much as RM2.20 (up by up to 30 sen) for RON95. </span></b><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">This isn't my first with such a big forecast, back in July 2016 the same was made but was slightly raised by 5 sen. </span><b><span style="color: blue;">Would the coming announcement be the same case? Very...very unlikely.</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous forecasts since the beginning. My forecasts are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit and domestic political matter.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQykzQVf0MeeiRQ5bzawvF6qUu69foPW_B6aBhzDM1GQ683oFh_NKq5eZv_gyPckYc8PcnbVjruhiX_cNgQzbDKM6CHbeHKG4HTXcKHwueqKJ_HvGu-uYOmbxb5zu0wv2-6NRD62Jzm6bv/s1600/Image+8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQykzQVf0MeeiRQ5bzawvF6qUu69foPW_B6aBhzDM1GQ683oFh_NKq5eZv_gyPckYc8PcnbVjruhiX_cNgQzbDKM6CHbeHKG4HTXcKHwueqKJ_HvGu-uYOmbxb5zu0wv2-6NRD62Jzm6bv/s640/Image+8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to forecast the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-18824888174504267332016-12-13T00:19:00.000+08:002016-12-13T00:28:37.041+08:00It's Dec, Load Up Your PRS and Save RM720 in Taxes!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGbyzn0oJ4A9EnStJkxOEQg-O-xGXL9JdOWiF3GX9_3c2AzR6iJe9PCZSN69Lmwd49RDJXlBvbq_EQMj7ic8d077-CV-0aw4rDyffo1Vok6PL7gjjnUI1RWTP33K-xtCWN6VTTcu82kCV6/s1600/tax-day-2015-meme-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGbyzn0oJ4A9EnStJkxOEQg-O-xGXL9JdOWiF3GX9_3c2AzR6iJe9PCZSN69Lmwd49RDJXlBvbq_EQMj7ic8d077-CV-0aw4rDyffo1Vok6PL7gjjnUI1RWTP33K-xtCWN6VTTcu82kCV6/s320/tax-day-2015-meme-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Did the title grab your attention? :) Well it is true that you can save RM720/RM570 if you are earning at least RM80k/RM60k annual chargeable income before RM3,000 PRS Relief.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Recently Fundsupermart wrote a good article on <a href="https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/research/-View-Idea-of-The-Week-An-Overview-of-PRS-Fund-Performance-2-December-2016--7772">An Overview of PRS Fund Performance (2 Dec 2016) (see link)</a> which I concur of their analysis. Here's a summary of it and some of my own comments:</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Growth Fund</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fundinfo/CIMB-Principal-PRS-Plus-Asia-Pacific-Ex-Japan-Equity-Class-C-MYCPPRS5C">CIMB-Principal PRS Plus Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity-Class C</a> (highest Sharpe 0.89 but highest volatility 10.2% - China/HK exposure). This fund </span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">feeds into 100% of CIMB-Principal Asia Pacific Dynamic Income Fund-MYR. </span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Aboi has </span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">holdings in this fund.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Balanced Fund</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fundinfo/Affin-Hwang-PRS-Moderate-Fund-MYHPRSMF">Affin Hwang PRS Moderate Fund</a> (highest Sharpe 0.56 with volatility 4.7%). This fund </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">feeds into [1] 25% of Affin Hwang Select Asia Pacific (ex Japan) Select Balanced Fund [</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">2] 25% of Affin Hwang Select Bond Fund [</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">3] 19% of Affin Hwang Select Dividend Fund [</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">4] 11% of Affin Hwang Select Asia (ex Japan) Opportunity Fund and [</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">5] 10% of Affin Hwang Select Balanced Fund.</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Conservative Fund</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fundinfo/AmTactical-Bond-Class-B-MYR--MYAMTTB">AmPRS-Tactical Bond Fund-Class D</a> (75% exposure to MYR denominated bonds, Sharpe 0.66 with volatility of 3.4%). This fund </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">feeds into 100% AmTactical Bond- Class B (MYR).</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Others (REIT)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fundinfo/AmPRS-Asia-Pacific-REITs-Class-D-MYAMPRSRE">AmPRS - Asia Pacific REITs - Class D</a> (property Asia including Japan). This fund </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">feeds into 100% AmAsia Pacific REITs - Class B (MYR). </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">Aboi has holdings in this fund.</span></span></h2>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Notes</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- The choice of funds have overseas exposure which is better in terms of distributing risks as well as more diversified investment opportunities.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- In lieu of Trump victory and higher likelihood of inflation to return, AmPRS Tactical Bond Fund wouldn't be a good choice given the current investing climate where possibility of an interest rate hike is almost certain. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- In Budget 2017, our dear Bijan increased the <a href="http://www.ppa.my/prs/prs-youth/prs-youth-incentive/">Youth Incentive (see link)</a> from RM500 to RM1000! </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">With an initial investment of RM1000 you can afford to lose 50% and still retain your initial investment. </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It never occurred to me that our Supreme Leader would actually do something beneficial for the Rakyat.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Cross checked <a href="http://gllt.morningstar.com/e6qvxuu98r/fundquickrank/default.aspx?LanguageId=en-GB&tab=ShortTer">Morningstar Fund Quickrank for PRS (see link)</a>. Public Mutual PRS funds did not outperform any of the above in their respective categories. (3 year period). Sorry agents I know I'm not doing you any sales favour here.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Public Mutual/Manulife funds have the highest TER (total expense ratio). This actually eats away your annual fund return rate like a virus.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-69690408679916795332016-11-29T22:32:00.000+08:002016-11-29T22:32:17.925+08:00December Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">**It is </span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
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<b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">November 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">OPEC is trying to bring its members and non-OPEC producer Russia to agree on a coordinated cut to prop up the market, beset by a two-year glut in supplies, by bringing production into line with consumption. See link:</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-ugly-it-could-get-for-stocks-if-opec-cant-reach-a-deal-2016-11-29">http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-ugly-it-could-get-for-stocks-if-opec-cant-reach-a-deal-2016-11-29</a>. Anyhow I think the oil market is likely to remain oversupplied for some time yet even after the OPEC meeting, especially since U.S. oil production will soon start rising again. Price to remain subdued.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Emerging market assets have tumbled in general in the wake of Trump's upset win, as the dollar surged and U.S. Treasury yields jumped - Malaysian Ringgit is no exception. Also markets </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">have been pricing in Trump's aggressive rhetoric on curtailing global trade with the U.S., which would disproportionately hurt trade-dependent emerging economies. To add salt to the wound our BNM's</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> attempt to use moral suasion to support its currency threatens to backfire, increasing pressure on the ringgit and potentially hurting growth. Perhaps there is not much we can do since </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">foreign-exchange reserves are uncomfortably low after having been run down in 2014 and increasing interest rates right now is politically suicidal for a possible GE14 next year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's Dec'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5UbRPor2sRkALEOCe4DQe751GpcbCeBWtSbGcUIstHliyohW0GX5v6qiTR0_chH69ZFqW-Ln47kPtkZ1GRf8f7Ed05HX1ulCM9cGcDAwv9ESPq2-coXl79RXybydDMhYj9wm9wTKVsGhc/s1600/Image+7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5UbRPor2sRkALEOCe4DQe751GpcbCeBWtSbGcUIstHliyohW0GX5v6qiTR0_chH69ZFqW-Ln47kPtkZ1GRf8f7Ed05HX1ulCM9cGcDAwv9ESPq2-coXl79RXybydDMhYj9wm9wTKVsGhc/s640/Image+7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A Trump victory was not very good news for us and this was combined with a central bank that did not handle Ringgit volatility very well. </span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">MYR continues to slide downhill (4.17 to 4.32). </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Fortunately average oil price went down from $53.51 to $49.12 so the R</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">M/L between October and November strengthen: 1.87 vs 1.78.</span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price to be maintained @ RM1.95 for RON95. There is a remote chance it might be reduced by 5 sen.</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions since the beginning. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit and domestic political matter. <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 12.00.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-17137343390980180222016-11-22T00:24:00.000+08:002016-11-22T00:24:45.715+08:00Trumponomics 2017-2020<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The election is going to have significant long-term consequences for US policies beyond its own borders. Expect the development of new policies in opposite end of the spectrum which should generally be less liberal than before to respond to Trump's core voters a.k.a middle class who were impacted by globalization. This piece is originally from The Edge November 7 2016 but is edited by me with my own thoughts. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Let's think of two scenarios: Lite vs Full Trump. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Plan</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Reality sinks in and he must negotiate his measures with his fellow Republicans and forced to give up part of his original plan</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">. Final proposals are more modest and neutral to the budget deficit. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: He goes full steam ahead in the implementation of all if not nearly all of his campaign promises.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on US economy</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Slightly positive on US growth. No recession.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: US growth heading downwards. Expect a recession.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on global economy</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Global GDP growth to be approximately 3%. About 0.5% lower than initial estimates.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: Global GDP growth might be lower than 2% or minus if a recession occurs.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on volatility of exchange rate/equities</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Significant which we are feeling right now.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: Major. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on US monetary policy</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: No rate rise by fed in Dec 2016 as </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dollar is too strong. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Might have tightening in 2017 if reflation occurs due to his infrastructure spending plans.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: If US growth weakens or worse a recession, tightening will stop and QE4 would no doubt be considered.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on US Treasury bonds</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Increase in long term rates due to expectation of high deficits from his spending plans. Then a downturn.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: Same as above.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on US equities</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Selective sectors that benefits from his policies to go up as a knee jerk reaction. Others will go down particular technology sector.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: Defense, infrastructure and healthcare sectors to shine. Others no.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Do not count on international strategies due to his closed door outlook but instead on purely domestic strategies and small-cap equities.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on US dollar</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Positive in short-medium term as investors flocks to long term bond yields that are more favorable.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: Negative if the US requires QE4 policy or if fiscal expansions plans are blocked by political gridlock.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on gold</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Purchase if the Dollar's strength means a weaker gold price. Buy if you hold USD physically. Not worth to convert Ringgit to USD as it merely offsets it.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: Purchase regardless if very certain of economic, geopolitical or financial stress.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Impact on emerging markets</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lite: Weakened at first by general uncertainty and by the rise of risk aversion.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Full: Weakened by increase in protectionist policies and risk aversion. Major trading nations to be impacted heavily such as China and Mexico.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Russia might be the only exception since his "bromance" with Putin might result in the lift of US sanctions.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It's going to be a very interesting but at the same time nervous next four years for investors :) Trump is not going to be President just yet but he will on January 20th 2017. I would like to be wrong but until there is more certainty it is better to keep cash and wait for opportunities to present themselves. Signing off folks....</span>Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-4089729003115968612016-11-06T23:41:00.000+08:002016-11-06T23:47:58.891+08:00EPF's Akaun Emas - What you need to know<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">I am for EPF's move to lock in savings until contributor turns to 60. There is word flying around that EPF will run of out money due to our government's overspending but that is </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b>largely bollocks</b></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">. First EPF is independently run by professionals which has performed well over the years. Second EPF is bound a myriad of rules and regulations that bars it from investing recklessly. Third why on earth would our MO1 KowTow to China for funding if it could easily get it from EPF.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: #444444;">Whether you know it or not Malaysia is heading towards being classified as an </span><b><span style="color: red;">ageing society by the year 2035</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> (only 19 years from now). Ageing here mean that individuals above 60 years make up a larger proportion of the total population (>15%). This is evident as life expectancy is rising (more than 75) and fertility is decreasing (an average family now has 2 kids compared to half a dozen 25 years ago). </span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px;">Tightening EPF withdrawal rules is not good enough. Hence the move to establish the Akaun Emas. This was done after f</span><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: #444444;">ollowing the Members Consultation Exercise last year. A total of </span><b><span style="color: blue;">94% of respondents overwhelmingly agreed</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> for the EPF to maintain the Age 55 withdrawal, with new contributions from age 55 to 60 to be locked in until age 60, hence the introduction of Akaun Emas.</span></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEhRHCBt1UgPVfdcYWvL1moVOteWfYRjZ32fAIJ2Ta1fo0bnHuemUW8wsM57sgTAmDeqWBdf5sZmhijNREeDGJ3KzzZkXWb1c9OcdkZ6cEK2BCs-sU5KD846wJw3rnyXm-ynCltmFsr-An/s1600/WhatsApp+Image+2016-11-06+at+10.23.43.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEhRHCBt1UgPVfdcYWvL1moVOteWfYRjZ32fAIJ2Ta1fo0bnHuemUW8wsM57sgTAmDeqWBdf5sZmhijNREeDGJ3KzzZkXWb1c9OcdkZ6cEK2BCs-sU5KD846wJw3rnyXm-ynCltmFsr-An/s1600/WhatsApp+Image+2016-11-06+at+10.23.43.jpeg" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">Okay even a summarized chart might be technical for some folks. Let me help you with that.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">[1] Below 50 and At 50 - no changes. You already know what you know now.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"> - </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">Seventy per cent of contributions goes into Account 1 and 30% goes into Account 2.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"> - You can withdraw from Account 1 at age 55 only.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"> - You can withdraw from Account 2 at any age subject to eligibility.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: #444444;">[2] </span><b><span style="color: blue;">At 55 - starting next year Jan 1 2017, everything will be transferred to Akaun 55</span><span style="color: #444444;">.</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: #444444;">[3] </span><b><span style="color: blue;">From 55 to 60 - you can still contribute while working but to the new Akaun Emas</span><span style="color: #444444;">.</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">***The addition of Akaun Emas does NOT impact what we currently have AT ALL. Please don't listen to false rumours/fake news that govt is extending withdrawal to keep it for themselves - <b>all those are bollocks</b>. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><b><u>Other important notes</u></b>:</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">- You will still get dividends from your Akaun 55 and Akaun Emas even when you are aged 56 to 60.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">- </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">There will be no difference in the annual dividend payout % between both accounts to be fair to all EPF members.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">- You can still make a full withdrawal from Akaun 55 from age 55 to 60. You cannot however withdraw any amount from Akaun Emas unless you are 60 years old and above.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">- At age 60 both Akaun 55 and Akaun Emas will be combined. Name of account not known.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">- If you are terminally ill say at age 58 you can withdraw from Akaun Emas under the Incapacitation Withdrawal scheme.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: #444444;">One short disclaimer. </span><b><span style="color: red;">Aboi says that</span></b><b><span style="color: red;"> moving forward EPF returns will not likely be as good as it was in the last few previous years.</span><span style="color: blue;"> </span></b><span style="color: #444444;">Considering that equities markets around are the world are struggling and most funds are under performing. Likewise the low interest rate regime is likely to stay for many years hence impacting the performance of many pension funds globally, not limited to Malaysia. Fixed income investment instruments used to dish out high yields of 8% during the heydays in the 1990s but now yields on MGS and Treasuries have declined to less than 3.3% now - hence the term low interest rate regime thanks to the Financial Crisis of 2007/2008.</span></span></span>Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-73187263674634253412016-11-05T00:42:00.002+08:002016-11-05T00:42:27.644+08:00Alternative: Lego 75155 and 75095 Sets<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">I continue to add more sets into my portfolio after successfully selling 9462: The Mummy, 9471: Uruk-Hai Army and various other LOTR sets as they mature for more than 3 years with a cool profit margin of 55.82%. Once again I like to use the proceeds to get bigger and badder sets :) This is known as <b>trade up</b>; a term used by real estate investors. One good marketplace for the Malaysian market is here: </span><span style="font-size: 12px;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/KedaiLegoMalaysia/">https://www.facebook.com/groups/KedaiLegoMalaysia/</a> or eBay for overseas.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">The lego shop in Queensbay Mall is having a 30% discount promo for selected sets; mainly Star Wars until 6th Nov 2016. And you will get two polybag freebies for free if you spent above RM350; easily worth RM60 in total!</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglQYQxsouVr8xVxkV0TyBfrTkIzanS5_SOYPCmNq9ScYjwAY2lrEWZ4vTLmmvN24lqJMF5UXQmYUK1XLBh9CW7a7pv5Vk9bqdiDFNjbIHX9_zbDwoCndboqn_90Yb6SgkOhpcYzZzVWJsD/s1600/u-wing.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglQYQxsouVr8xVxkV0TyBfrTkIzanS5_SOYPCmNq9ScYjwAY2lrEWZ4vTLmmvN24lqJMF5UXQmYUK1XLBh9CW7a7pv5Vk9bqdiDFNjbIHX9_zbDwoCndboqn_90Yb6SgkOhpcYzZzVWJsD/s320/u-wing.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">75155: Rebel U-Wing Fighter</span></td></tr>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: blue;"><u>Aboi Says:</u></span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- Ship fits in with the aesthetic of A New Hope (episode 4) and has the old classic feeling and colours.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- UT-60D will form an integral part of the coming film based on trailers; may well prove to the most popular of all Rogue One Lego sets.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- Impression selection of minifigures. Jyn will very probably be not unique. Bistan's head is completely unique and the U-Wing's pilot blue suit is nicely crafted.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- On a USD 0.11 price per brick basis this set is </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">considered on the low end of pricing in Rogue One Lego sets.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">This ship will be pretty well sought after in the future provided it has a significant presence in the film for it has amazing play features & minifigures. Medium risk level.</span></b></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiWZG2xn7vCTYr9IlQVCghrvlpngmvywh_VewApUBuTrXvWWIe3Wf0D3O7urzSpwhTQ06Qg3RyhVTK-F7nBBSqWDgg5jOnHXsE1y9985zE3aPR7XTA6FScsfsxY66w2edQyOcIgHYYAAkY/s1600/LEGO-Star-Wars-TIE-Fighter-75095-BRAND.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiWZG2xn7vCTYr9IlQVCghrvlpngmvywh_VewApUBuTrXvWWIe3Wf0D3O7urzSpwhTQ06Qg3RyhVTK-F7nBBSqWDgg5jOnHXsE1y9985zE3aPR7XTA6FScsfsxY66w2edQyOcIgHYYAAkY/s320/LEGO-Star-Wars-TIE-Fighter-75095-BRAND.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">75095: UCS Tie Fighter</span></td></tr>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: blue;"><u>Aboi Says:</u></span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- Most revered of Star Wars offerings a UCS set - Ultimate Collector's Series. It is only available on Lego.com and the Lego brand stores so it is considered very exclusive and hard to find.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- The minifigure of a TIE Fighter Pilot is completely unique to this set - addition of detailed printing on the shoulder, arm and wrist.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- Twice as large as the retired 9492: Tie Fighter set back in 2012. That set retailed at $55 and now it is selling for nearly $100 in the secondary market - a whopping CAGR of 16.12%. And this set is better in every single aspect + being a UCS.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">- On a USD 0.12 price per brick basis this set is </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">considered low on the pricing scale.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">The ship's design is based of the original trilogy and being a UCS set it will definitely hold on to its value and certainly go up in value over the logn run. Too bad that the [75060: Slave I] was completely sold out by the time I went to the store - otherwise that would be another UCS set that I would get and hold. Low risk level.</span></span></span></b></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">And these are the free polybags that were given. Easily worth RM60 in total.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH8FKRwPX9rXOo7Qz1-gVvCx_ydVLJ0OVucJa879P7HL_C0NuF0UaH8iHZWDTem9wSiO3clGJO0RdACaftMSr5fjoVAKD-poNIma_hyphenhyphenihgtDEaegrGTTgeXfIzYRel_AhyibwTHQT02Wx5/s1600/brickpicker_set_5004408_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH8FKRwPX9rXOo7Qz1-gVvCx_ydVLJ0OVucJa879P7HL_C0NuF0UaH8iHZWDTem9wSiO3clGJO0RdACaftMSr5fjoVAKD-poNIma_hyphenhyphenihgtDEaegrGTTgeXfIzYRel_AhyibwTHQT02Wx5/s320/brickpicker_set_5004408_1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 14px;">Disclaimer:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"> The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.</span>Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-28019250190105630012016-10-31T20:15:00.000+08:002016-10-31T20:15:15.514+08:00Budget 2017: Gearing For Election<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I have stopped compiling my own datasheets (<a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2015/10/budget-2016-ini-kerja-bodoh.html">Budget 2016 (see link)</a>) as it is taking too much time. Furthermore it is now the digital age and the same information can be found easily elsewhere :)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Let's look at a few pointers highlighted by <a href="http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/state-nation-taking-look-how-taxpayers%E2%80%99-money-has-been-spent">The Edge Malaysia (see link)</a>.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMGFhYlDMyOWmepJJqzX9_Ih0SslImwfakq8ZTV0Thjqug-m-JCQnYqlqOPp0KmjZ06nFbqP4Oq2iR4yvVT7kiJzTW24m9ilTIhXAlRamv8A3th_zqr_gnVBSAkyrUywfMBrOkJVze70Ao/s1600/chart1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMGFhYlDMyOWmepJJqzX9_Ih0SslImwfakq8ZTV0Thjqug-m-JCQnYqlqOPp0KmjZ06nFbqP4Oq2iR4yvVT7kiJzTW24m9ilTIhXAlRamv8A3th_zqr_gnVBSAkyrUywfMBrOkJVze70Ao/s1600/chart1.JPG" /></span></a></div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #333333; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The numbers: </strong><span style="color: #333333;">The share of the operating expenditure (opex) of the budget rose to 99% of government revenue in 2013 and 2014, significantly higher than the 79% to 82% from 1998 to 2003 (excluding 91% in 2000). </span><b><span style="color: red;">Opex has stayed above 95% of government revenue</span></b><span style="color: #333333;"> since 2008, during which there were two election years (2008 under Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and 2013 under Datuk Seri Najib Razak).</span></div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #333333; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What that means:</strong><span style="color: #333333;"> High opex means more money is going to government operations, leaving less for development expenditure (devex). This is akin to a company having less money to grow the business as most of its income is going to administrative expenses. The saving grace is that the RM50 billion devex projected for 2016 is up from RM47.4 billion in 2015 and RM39.5 billion in 2014, although most of it had to be </span><b><span style="color: red;">debt-funded due to the high opex</span></b><span style="color: #333333;">.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: blue;">Aboi: Development as a % to budget allocation is now only 17.6%! </span></b></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>During Dr.M's time it was in the mid 30s, Pak Lah's at 20s and now Najib's a pathetic 10s. </b></span><b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">How low can we go? Revenue only grew 3% and that's after GST's RM30b being added, income tax is not growing as much it means the economy is not really expanding. Spending taxation is not like income taxation.</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></b></span>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The numbers:</strong> Based on the total government debt of RM655.75 billion as at 2Q2016, Malaysia’s 2016 debt servicing cost is RM26.64 billion — that is RM2.22 billion a month, RM512.3 million a week or RM73 million a day — enough to give RM828 to every Malaysian (RM2.30 a day to 31.8 million citizens for the whole year).</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">Debt service charges have increased in tandem with rising debt</span></b><span style="color: #333333;">. While the federal government’s debt remains below 55% of gross domestic product (helped by some off-balance sheet transfers), the absolute amount quadrupled in 15 years to RM655.75 billion in 2Q2016 (excluding RM178 billion in quasi-government debt in 1Q2016) from RM165 billion in 2002. In 2008, debt stood at RM306 billion.</span></div>
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Malaysia only saw budget surpluses between 1993 and 1997 when the economy grew 9.5% per annum on average. This year’s GDP is projected to slow to 4% to 4.5% from 5% in 2015 and 6% in 2014. If a balanced budget is only attained in 2020, Malaysia would have had 23 straight years of budget deficits. Budget 2017 is expected to be the 19th straight year, with the fiscal deficit target expected to be 3%.</div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What that means: </strong>While borrowings are usually needed to fund development, debt service charges are generally seen as unproductive. And </span><span style="color: red;"><b>nearly 12% of government revenue is needed</b></span><span style="color: #333333;"> for this purpose this year with debt service charges at RM26.6 billion — enough to buy Telekom Malaysia Bhd, whose market capitalisation is only RM25.1 billion currently and pays dividend of at least RM700 million annually.</span></div>
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The RM26.6 billion is also enough to give every Malaysian a KFC Dinner Plate meal (RM14.90 each) every week for the whole year with RM50 to spare.</div>
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If debt and debt service charges were lower, more money could also go towards helping the middle and lower-income groups. Tellingly, BR1M allocations for the five years from 2012 to 2016 totalled RM20.6 billion (allocation had risen to RM5.9 billion for 2016 from RM1.8 billion in 2012).</div>
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Petronas has contributed some RM900 billion in oil revenue (including dividend plus taxes) to the federal and state governments in the past four decades. If 15% of that had been set aside, the country would have at least RM135 billion to cushion the tough economic times.</div>
<b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Aboi: </span></b><b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">In fact we have been running budget deficits for 19 years! And we just broke a new record, 97.76% of the revenue is used for management - paying civil servants salaries etc.. Loan servicing/paying bank interest alone is a whopping RM27b while development's RM46b is funded solely through more debt.</span></b><br />
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<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The numbers: </strong><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><b><span style="color: red;">Some 40% of government revenue goes to paying the emolument and pension bill</span></b><span style="color: #333333;">. The nation’s pension obligation of RM19.5 billion in 2016 alone is 8.6% of federal government revenue and 9.1% of opex. A decade ago, pension or retirement costs were only RM8.3 billion. It was even lower in 1997 at RM3.6 billion.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333;">Pension obligation will only rise as Malaysians are living longer and healthcare costs for the elderly will also go up. By 2035, one in 10 Malaysians will be aged 65 and above. </span><b><span style="color: red;">By 2021, Malaysia will reach that 7% threshold that the World Bank defines as an ageing society</span></b><span style="color: #333333;"> — not that far away.</span></div>
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The civil service emolument bill, on its own, too has doubled the past decade, from RM32.6 billion in 2007 to RM70.5 billion in 2016.</div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What that means:</strong> While it is good that employees get a bigger share of the profits of a company, in an environment of slowing economic growth globally, the odds are stacked against the government’s coffers, although it may well want to continue shouldering the rising civil service emolument and pension bill. That means a civil service and public pension reform would have to be on the cards in the medium term, unless Malaysia can successfully expand its coffers.</div>
<b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Aboi: First; the GST and the minimum wage policy is killing businesses so there is no way to expand the coffer. Second; the new perks being added are just the exact opposite of reforms. Computer loan, motorcycle loan, housing loan - more and more hutang! Quarantine leave - fully paid leave, tak payah kerja! And more bonus payouts RM500/RM250 which is becoming like a handout - similar to BR1M!</span></b><br />
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The numbers: </strong>Malaysia has clearly not skimped on education with RM436 billion allocated to it the past decade (2007 to 2016) — the need here is to get the desired quality from the money spent.</div>
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<span style="color: #333333;">Over the same period, however, the country spent RM221 billion on </span><b><span style="color: red;">home security and defence — more than the amount spent on healthcare</span></b><span style="color: #333333;"> (RM160 billion) and housing (RM12 billion) put together.</span></div>
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While defence allocation was reduced from RM27.1 billion in 2015 to RM26.9 billion in 2016, it is still nearly double the RM16 billion allocated in 2007 and RM6 billion in 1998.</div>
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Healthcare allocation was RM21.7 billion in 2016, almost unchanged year on year, but had more than doubled over the past decade from RM9.8 billion in 2007.</div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #333333; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What that means:</strong><span style="color: #333333;"> Malaysia is said to be subsidising more than 90% of healthcare costs, but as Malaysians live longer, there is added pressure on public healthcare funding. Adding to that is the prevalence of diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and cancer, which also adds to the cost of subsidising healthcare. </span><b><span style="color: red;">Experts expect a public healthcare reform to take place in the medium term to shift more cost to the consumer</span></b><span style="color: #333333;">.</span></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Aboi: Reversed priority and yet our ESSCOM does not seem to be doing its fair share of funding. Ransom kidnappings is a weekly occurrence in Eastern Sabah. Talked about housing where are the PR1MA houses? Sudah 5 tahun tapi belum dapat kunci.</span></span></b><br />
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The numbers: </strong>Malaysia has cut subsidies for sugar, cooking oil, gas (for cooking) and petrol. The subsidy rationalisation to favour targeted subsidies rather than blanket ones, successfully reduced its subsidies bill. Before fuel subsidies were scraped on Dec 1, 2014, subsidies had reached RM44.1 billion in 2012, RM43.4 billion in 2013 and RM39.7 billion in 2014 — 20% to 21% of total government revenue.</div>
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The projection of RM26.1 billion for 2016 (11.6% of government revenue) is just above the RM23.1 billion in 2010 and is still more than double the RM10.5 billion in 2007.</div>
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<strong style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #333333; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What that means: </strong><b><span style="color: red;">Subsidies continue to take up just over one-tenth of government revenue</span></b><span style="color: #333333;">. That is not necessarily bad if the money indeed benefits the bottom 40% of the population who need the aid the most. Experts have observed that the government could better stretch every ringgit used for targeted subsidies if resources to help a particular group are pooled, thus minimising agencies’ areas of overlap.</span></div>
<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Aboi: We should expect prices of goods to go up in 2017 as the allocation has been halved to only RM10b. My best guess would toll, electricity, cooking oil and flour. Yet our MO1 increased BR1M, in a sense we are shifting and not eliminating subsidies.</span></span></b><br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is like a big merry go round. When salaries are being eaten up by higher prices we will have to raise the minimum wage again. </span></span></b><b style="color: blue; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The prices will go up again. Why? because employers sufffer higher salary costs and they must recoup the higher salaries. Prices will go up. People will suffer again. Once again the budget is a Kerja Bodoh.</b><br />
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<b style="color: blue; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">MO1 merely added condensed milk to it and made it an 'Election' budget. He read the budget using a teleprompter just to look good on national TV and he gave out perks/benefits/handouts largely targeting the ruling party's voter base. And lastly he e</b><span style="color: blue; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>nded his speech drumming up the idea of how there will be an “ultimate victory in the 14th general election to the Barisan Nasional.</b></span><br />
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<b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></b>Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-69413838754515144032016-10-31T11:35:00.002+08:002016-10-31T11:35:29.554+08:00November Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Sorry I was out on holidays and therefore I missed out the October posting<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">This is the 13th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 6.75.</span></b></span></div>
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<b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">October 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Oil spikes as a weekend marathon of talks between major oil producers failed to finalize plans to implement an output cut, threatening the viability of an agreement reached last month to reduce production between by as much as 2%. Again an a</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">bsence of production cuts from OPEC as they intent to keep market share at a cost to their budget deficits. Prospects for oil to go higher than it is right now appears dim.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">MYR is likely fall a little more due to OPEC's internal disagreement over a planned output cut. The </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">speculation that Bank Negara would still lower the OPR by another 25 basis points is still alive and could be as early as 23rd November 2016 as the country's growth remain tepid. Budget 2017 is a letdown in my opinion; RM214.6 for management and only RM46 for development. It is an 'election' budget in which its perks and benefits are largely targeting the ruling party's voter base. Hence investors don't see a big reason why they should pour money into Malaysia - MYR to remain weak for another year. </span><br />
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's Nov'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">RM/L between Aug and October weaken: 1.62 vs 1.87. Average oil price bumped up from $48.06 to $53.51 and MYR remain continues to remain weak (4.02 to 4.17). Not very good news after the so called 'election' budget. </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price to be increased by up to 15 sen to RM1.95 for RON95. </span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Please fill your tank as soon as possible today before the announcement.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 6.75.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-64140194875045659942016-08-31T00:26:00.001+08:002016-08-31T00:26:18.770+08:00September Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the 12th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 3.25.</span></b></span></div>
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<b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">August 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 16.8px;">Oil to continue to trade sideways as it faces the heat on several fronts. </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">China's slowing crude demand & speculation of Yuan devaluation due to the soft economic growth. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 16.8px;">A</span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">bsence of production cuts from OPEC as they intent to keep market share. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">T</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">he resilience of North American shale suppliers to keep pumping despite crashing prices. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Continuing </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">concerns over the effects of Brexit on crude demand. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Moreover, a stronger dollar has made the greenback-priced crude more expensive for investors holding foreign currency.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Nothing much on the MYR front. There are speculation that Bank Negara would still lower the OPR by another 25 basis points. Already our growth is tapering, from the initial 5.5% down all the way to 4%. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Brexit's impact will only be seen in late Q3 and Q4 for 2016, the heighten anxiety over it coupled with uncertainty makes it very difficult even for experts to gauge the real impact. Malaysia's export market to the UK is only 3% of our total so I would think not much would be felt domestically.</span></div>
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's Sept'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">RM/L between July and August is roughly the same: 1.61 vs 1.62. Average oil price almost remained relatively the same $47.71 to $48.06 and MYR was flattish (4.02). <b>Aboi's is confused </b>as to why the price was unchanged last month as there are no major political happenings or festivities besides the incoming Merdeka Day. </span></span></span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nevertheless I will continue to stick to my guns, </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price to be increased by up to 15 sen to RM1.90 for RON95. </span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Please fill your tank as soon as possible. Worse come I will continue to be confused if the price is unchanged again.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 3.25.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7YnZyEl1WgRirIzrnPTVW6lInI5dPmgphyfgVVkCSrZvKkm18j_hKDo1KyjTrTlGa6dxfiohec0IR3rE0q7pQK9dTEaW29B8S94TO7YC2n_cbw_0CmDhxSmPmg0robNXV6mrlCPO_T0a5/s1600/Capture2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7YnZyEl1WgRirIzrnPTVW6lInI5dPmgphyfgVVkCSrZvKkm18j_hKDo1KyjTrTlGa6dxfiohec0IR3rE0q7pQK9dTEaW29B8S94TO7YC2n_cbw_0CmDhxSmPmg0robNXV6mrlCPO_T0a5/s640/Capture2.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-29982644261117389992016-07-31T11:35:00.004+08:002016-07-31T11:36:42.378+08:00August Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the 12th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
<div style="line-height: 16.8px;">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 3.25.</span></b></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">July 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Oil prices went down fueled by persistent global supply glut. Also due partly from Brexit, slower economic growth was revised for the rest of 2016. This factor together with high inventories for crude oil drove global oil prices into bear market territory. It remains that overall </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">oil is projected to be in the $45-$55 range for some time.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Bank Negara made a surprising move to lower the OPR by 25 basis points. Naturally this will cause the Ringgit to be weaker but the impact hasn't been that large or felt. Brexit's impact will only be seen in late Q3 and Q4 for 2016, the heighten anxiety over it coupled with uncertainty makes it very difficult even for experts to gauge the real impact. Malaysia's export market to the UK is only 3% of our total so I would think not much would be felt domestically.</span><br />
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's Aug'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZL8QrOJB2mwIJ-JYw73LX_AUGe7lCppAAuxFMcUhoCL1oFCJA2KM-F1A9cw2YddP7EkGwGfnr6rcDv11ri_9jqtzScqE0-xCMO3yEzxwKsHRTc_L-6kOasa6h8iHt6Pnl_r9DHmKMtTzV/s1600/july1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZL8QrOJB2mwIJ-JYw73LX_AUGe7lCppAAuxFMcUhoCL1oFCJA2KM-F1A9cw2YddP7EkGwGfnr6rcDv11ri_9jqtzScqE0-xCMO3yEzxwKsHRTc_L-6kOasa6h8iHt6Pnl_r9DHmKMtTzV/s640/july1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">RM/L between June and July strengthen: 1.72 vs 1.61 (back to May levels). Average oil price tapered from $50.28 to $47.71 (-5.11%) and MYR improved very slightly (4.08 -> 4.02), about -1.47%. <b>Aboi's was right </b>about last month's price increase but not the magnitude of it (missed out the Raya factor). Rakyat's sentiment has to be taken into account in the analysis; that will be the 4th factor after global oil price, performance of myr and politics.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This time there isn't seem to be any saving grace. Festivities are over and the 1MDB issue by DOJ wont be a damper on price so we should see actual prices to reflect this time</span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">, </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price to be increased by up to 15 sen to RM1.90 for RON95. </span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Please fill your tank as soon as possible before the ensuing mayhem this evening - go out for lunch now :)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 3.25.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9l0sZ7yr7fnOwXU5McKP6eJkzMsLYJqSCrJa3p04MGesJRZ4_rn6VHY9iGUShtuxBnl3KX7vSQakJOVb1skeRnQZqISVJNg3yOZk0I0GeWisYAf3fUD8NyL5ycpU8Tft-YkooT9sGVaBu/s1600/july2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9l0sZ7yr7fnOwXU5McKP6eJkzMsLYJqSCrJa3p04MGesJRZ4_rn6VHY9iGUShtuxBnl3KX7vSQakJOVb1skeRnQZqISVJNg3yOZk0I0GeWisYAf3fUD8NyL5ycpU8Tft-YkooT9sGVaBu/s640/july2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-23884338302666393052016-07-10T14:04:00.000+08:002016-07-10T14:04:13.288+08:00WealthPot Page Revamp<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I have revamped one of my pages: <a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/p/watchlist.html">http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/p/watchlist.html</a>. I will no longer share my entire portfolio details due to privacy concerns. Instead this page will host a brief overview of my portfolio and soon to come watchlist.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The risk rating figure is quoted based on this methodology: <a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2016/04/aboi-defining-risk-rating-methodology.html">http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2016/04/aboi-defining-risk-rating-methodology.html</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Equities have fallen out of favour recently due to Brexit effect, nevertheless all the funds I have invested in have outperformed the index. Currently I am busy reading <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Five-Rules-Successful-Stock-Investing-ebook/dp/B000SEIYBK">The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing: Morningstar's Guide to Building Wealth and Winning in the Market</a>.</span><br />
<br />Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-86727358654924799472016-06-29T22:16:00.000+08:002016-06-29T22:16:02.269+08:00July Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the 11th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 1.75.</span></b></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">June 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Oil prices edged up due to potential oil workers strike in Norway (biggest North Sea producer) as well as a crisis in Venezuela's oil sector - power outages and equipment shortages. There are also concerns that a looming refined products glut, especially in Asia, might spill back into the crude market as refiners cut output. Overall oil is projected to be in the $45-$55 range for some time.</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Brexit caused a bloodbath in financial markets and rattled Emerging Market currencies (including Malaysia) that have some vulnerability as the UK votes to exit from EU. Investors dump risky assets to go into safe-haven ones such as US treasuries, Japanese government bonds, German bunds and gold. Based on past experience, Bank Negara will be reluctant to intervene so Ringgit will stay weaken for now.</span><br />
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's July'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiRhTMg7OUyvwuCPK5WYHqsuKDgOT8BttZNonjnO9u2rFXLYAZyzKMWTIvcxKVXGkTR08ctDz7Ymq4lYGw2pRXefHDO0qnWRijiw3aDtNpTMD7fJChFSGLTMwaGGwq2HenlJSRE5BR4qJ6/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiRhTMg7OUyvwuCPK5WYHqsuKDgOT8BttZNonjnO9u2rFXLYAZyzKMWTIvcxKVXGkTR08ctDz7Ymq4lYGw2pRXefHDO0qnWRijiw3aDtNpTMD7fJChFSGLTMwaGGwq2HenlJSRE5BR4qJ6/s640/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">RM/L between May and June weaken: 1.61 vs 1.72. Average oil price jumped from $47.43 to $50.28 (6.00%) and MYR didn't really outshine as well (4.04 -> 4.08) a tiny weakening of 1.0%. <b>Aboi's 1% was right </b>last month. All the trash talk about automatic price mechanism.. politics still trump everything else.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">However the honeymoon period is gone, my </span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>verdict by computation </b>is clear, </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price to be increased by up to 30 sen to RM2.00 for RON95. </span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">The government has never increased fuel price at this magnitude before so I think 20 sen is a bet fair. Please fill your tank as soon as possible before the ensuing mayhem tomorrow evening.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 1.75.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPjbDNvcuEx2SHx2J6rnYOk5-Me9dMtzXoeZYOwYh5t1pV4sk3mfT4vLKEaBKuZwOSMqRqYLKDO_fPTKLej-O1g_5zCyQb48a8op3La5K-nZpLNX_Ggr35g3GtEYiD65Sp1NU9_Y5aeR1-/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPjbDNvcuEx2SHx2J6rnYOk5-Me9dMtzXoeZYOwYh5t1pV4sk3mfT4vLKEaBKuZwOSMqRqYLKDO_fPTKLej-O1g_5zCyQb48a8op3La5K-nZpLNX_Ggr35g3GtEYiD65Sp1NU9_Y5aeR1-/s640/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-60730215563228857802016-05-29T23:00:00.001+08:002016-05-29T23:00:32.806+08:00June Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the 11th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 1.75.</span></b></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">May 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Oil prices have been boosted by a number of factors lately, including the unscheduled production outages, continued output decreases in the U.S. and strong demand for gasoline at the start of the driving season - Summer.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Yellen surprised market participants on Friday by suggesting that a decision to tighten the monetary policy is possible this summer - meaning an US interest rate hike might happen. This has put pressure on Emerging Market currencies including the Ringgit.</span><br />
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's June'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMVSS74XMEx3eVlTYmUO9ftVaSjh205-Olr5M5PWMd9NW0F37zfV9kRYMTEk_7QZio4wRNoTB1Ej2m5GpnRmQITMhhr13PxTRSp3nlBpUfauxPBYv-zSuWupLcn274AqkFxntoQA5a30CO/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMVSS74XMEx3eVlTYmUO9ftVaSjh205-Olr5M5PWMd9NW0F37zfV9kRYMTEk_7QZio4wRNoTB1Ej2m5GpnRmQITMhhr13PxTRSp3nlBpUfauxPBYv-zSuWupLcn274AqkFxntoQA5a30CO/s640/Capture.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">RM/L between Apr and May is very contrasting: 1.40 vs 1.61. Average oil price jumped from $42.71 to $47.43 (11.05%) and so did a weaker MYR this time (3.90 -> 4.04) a decrease by 3.6%. The <b>verdict by computation </b>is clear, </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price to be increased by 20 sen to RM1.90 for RON95. </span></b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: #444444;">However I cannot discount that there is a </span><b><span style="color: blue;">possibility that price will be maintained due to the two by-elections</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> in Sungai Besar in Selangor state and for Kuala Kangsar in the northern Perak region which will be held on June 18. This has happened before back in May 2015!</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">To be safe just fill your tank as it is near impossible in which prices will be reduced.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 1.75.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-74705160474169908422016-04-28T00:08:00.000+08:002016-04-28T18:20:22.066+08:00May Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the 10th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 1.75.</span></b></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">April 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Although the DOHA talks failed in producing a deal to freeze some oil output, Russia and Saudi has agreed to put oil production levels at January's level which will boost price. In more recent developments, America's oil inventories are coming down. </span><a href="http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/oil-hits-2016-high-ahead-us-inventory-report" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Oil hits 2016 high ahead of U.S. inventory report (see link)</a><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">MYR continues to receive support from foreign investors though the level of inflows has moderated in April. MYR struggled when 1MDB defaulted payment</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><a href="http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/04/26/ipic-fails-to-make-bond-payment-but-1mdb-says-default-limited/">IPIC fails to make bond payment, but 1MDB says default limited (see link)</a> and traded sideways in anticipation of Zeti's replacement. However the appointment has concluded and Ibrahim will get the top job which will be positive for the Ringgit. </span><a href="http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/klci-cuts-losses-ringgit-stronger-new-bank-negara-governor" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Ringgit stronger on new Bank Negara Governor (see link)</a>.</div>
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's May'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">RM/L between Mar and Apr is quite similar: 1.41 vs 1.40. Average oil price increased slightly from $41 to $42.71 (4.2%) but this compensated by stronger MYR (4.08 -> 3.90) a gain of 4.4%. The verdict is clear, </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price to be maintained @ current price of RM1.70 for RON95. </span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Also with the Sarawak state election incoming in May price will only stay or go down slightly (but I don't see a reason why they would reduce it since BN winning Sarawak is a shoo in anyway).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 1.75.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-44737942672608566722016-04-14T20:56:00.000+08:002016-04-14T20:56:52.053+08:00Aboi: Defining Risk Rating MethodologyI am planning to revamp my Portfolio and Watchlist into a single page for ease of maintaining it. Furthermore I will remove all monetary values for personal & security reasons. This time I will likely only show [1] Total Returns [2] Holding Period [3] TWRR. In addition, I will introduce a revised risk rating ranking. In the past it was just Fixed Income -> Mixed Assets -> Equities.<br />
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Here's the new definition:-<br />
Riskiness of asset from a scale of 0 to 10. 0 being lowest risk to 10 being highest risk. The risk level is relative to each other. E.g. Asset A has a risk rating of [4] while Asset B has an [8]. Using relative terms, this means Asset B is riskier than Asset A it DOES NOT mean that Asset B is twice as risky.<br />
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Also remember the correlation between Risk & Return:<br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;"><u>Rating 0 (Lowest Risk)</u></span></b><br />
Fixed deposit instruments, money market funds or cash management instruments.<br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;"><u>Rating 1</u></span></b><br />
Malaysian bonds (RM-denominated) with very little foreign currency exposure.<br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;"><u>Rating 2</u></span></b><br />
Non-Malaysian bonds invested in govt bonds from a diversified no.of developed nations with low credit risk.<br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;"><u>Rating 3</u></span></b><br />
Non-Malaysian bonds mainly focusing in Asian region or Emerging markets.<br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;"><u>Rating 4</u></span></b><br />
Non-Malaysian bond funds invested in sub investment grade corporate bonds. Also known as equity exposed bonds.<br />
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<b><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><u>Rating 5</u></span></b><br />
Balanced funds (mixture of equity and fixed income instruments), a larger percentage of bond holdings would mean lower risk level.<br />
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<b><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><u>Rating 6</u></span></b><br />
Balanced funds (mixture of equity and fixed income instruments), a larger percentage of equity holdings would mean higher risk level.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;"><u>Rating 7</u></span></b><br />
Globally diversified equity funds. This means it has exposure across several major regions E.g. Americas, Europe, Asia and Japan.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;"><u>Rating 8</u></span></b><br />
Equity funds focusing in a major region e.g. Asia Pacific ex Japan. Malaysian equities/local funds/MREITs (although they are single-country focused) as investors are not exposed towards exchange rate changes.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;"><u>Rating 9</u></span></b><br />
Equity funds invested in riskier emerging markets e.g. Latin America, Russia and etc with foreign exchange risk. Equities that are heavily specialized in certain sector e.g. Technology (where companies usually fails if they are slow to adapt). Non-Malaysian REITs. Real estate/Property.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;"><u>Rating 10 (Highest Risk)</u></span></b><br />
Commodities for their fair value is very hard to evaluate. Forex. Alternative investments like collectibles E.g. Lego (because I have to hold them physically, store them properly for years), further more not all sets can be profitable.<br />
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**I might introduce new asset classes in future, my goal is NOT to move existing ones**Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-85036577293458114572016-04-13T01:27:00.001+08:002016-04-27T00:22:39.986+08:00Alternative: Lego 75099 Rey's SpeederI've started to sell off my old sets that I have kept since 2011. 8 sets (avg 170 pcs/set) this year and they are largely 2011/2012 sets with a cool profit margin of 57.66%. With those proceeds I picked up two of Rey's Speeder recently (and immediately once I saw it). I could have bought more if not for both Lego shop and Toy R US having only one of each remaining.<br />
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Star Wars The Force Awaken Lego have various sets as depicted below but why I did choose Rey's Speeder?<br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;"><u>Pros:</u></span></b><br />
- Set selling fast so I am lucky to find the last ones. Rey is popular with kids.<br />
- Set with Rey for $20, the other set with her will run you $150!<br />
- Though Rey is not unique, she looks fantastic and her dust cover will probably be just a one time deal so just the minifig alone is worth it.<br />
- Nice dark red slopes and good little pieces in the set makes it look very detailed.<br />
- On a USD price per brick basis this set is considered the cheapest of all TFA Lego sets.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;"><u>Cons:</u></span></b><br />
- Tools stuck on the side don't match with what we see in the movie. But a simple modification will do it (many people have done so just google it).<br />
- Hate the stickers, it's a lot for a relatively small set.<br />
- Not very much a playset, it is for display purpose.<br />
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In comparison to an older set: <a href="http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=8092-1">8092 Luke's Speeder </a>back in 2010 has a retail price of $25. It is now commanding a selling value of $42.40, roughly a CAGR of 9.1%. If you’ve seen the trailer, Rey's speeder was the first vehicle we got to see, so it’s the one that was just stamped into our brains. It's truly iconic that isn't clearly based on Original Trilogy vehicles and could certainly fetch a similar return.<br />
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<b><span style="color: #444444;"><u>Aboi Says:</u></span></b> The set and this version of Rey with the dust cover will NOT likely be remade. With its current popularity (can't find this set in Penang anymore) and potential uniqueness & rarity once it is no longer in production makes it a good deal.<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 14px;">Disclaimer:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"> The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.</span>Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-13928132105239088802016-03-30T17:11:00.002+08:002016-03-30T17:11:30.112+08:00April Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the 9th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: -RM 1.75.</span></b></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">April 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Short update for this month as I am not feeling well these days. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Oil rallied to around $40 per barrel largely due to oil talks between Russia and Saudi to cut production to boost price and with America's oil inventories dwindling.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">However MYR got a boost as foreign investors are bringing funds back into Malaysia. See the news today: <a href="http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/worlds-most-resilient-bull-market-endures-turmoil-as-foreigners-return-to-m">Foreign funds have poured about RM4.4 billion into Malaysian equities in 2016</a>.</span></div>
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><u>Aboi's April'16 Prediction Analysis</u></b></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">RM/L between Feb and Mar jumped almost 15%!: 1.23 (Feb) vs 1.41 (Mar). Oil price edged up from $35 to $41 (17%) but this cannot be offset by stronger MYR (4.17 -> 4.08), of only 2.15% gain. As such </span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price will be increased to RM1.75 for RON95 (a jump of 15 sen).</span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> Price highly <b>NOT </b>likely to go down so fill your tank before 1st of April 2016 (Friday).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><b><span style="color: red;">**</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">There is an uncertainty however. Back in May 2015 when two 'buy' elections were held prices were expected to increase but did not. The same thing could happen because of the looming Sarawak state elections so it's a 50/50 chance. Nevertheless there is no harm to fill it earlier as explained above</span></span><span style="color: red;"><b>**</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: -RM 1.75.</span></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-23267899090356564952016-03-25T23:13:00.002+08:002016-03-25T23:13:33.564+08:00Aboi's Updates For Malaysian PRS Funds for 1H'2016If you need to know what is PRS I suggest reading my earlier post here: <a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2013/03/private-retirement-schemes-in-malaysia.html">Private Retirement Schemes in Malaysia</a>. I decided to put money into PRS in Nov 2014 due to several reasons [1] income tax RM 3000 rebate until 2021 [2] youth incentive 30 years & below of RM500 [3] long term forced investment for retirement because if you withdraw earlier it is taxed.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">What do you need?</span></b><br />
[1] Provider’s joint account opening form cum transaction form. Initial subscription only for each provider. <a href="http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/prs/prsForms.tpl">PRS Forms (not the full list of all fund houses)</a><br />
[2] A copy of Malaysian NRIC or passport for foreigners. The front and back of the Malaysian NRIC must be on a single page.<br />
[3] Additional RM10 for the opening of a PPA account for first-time PRS contributors.<br />
**The above is via <a href="http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/home/index.svdo">Fundsupermart </a>platform (might be different if purchase directly). Fundsupermart offers 0% sales charge which is great.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Performance review</span></b><br />
I am currently invested in PRS for funds with exposure to <b><span style="color: blue;">Asia exc Japan</span></b> because that is what I am looking for so I wouldn't be touching a lot on other categories; just a brief run down of them. The data below is obtained from <a href="http://gllt.morningstar.com/e6qvxuu98r/fundscreener/default.aspx?LanguageId=en-GB&Universe=FOALL$$ALL_2271&Category=MYCA000001&CurrencyId=MYR&tab=ShortTerm">Morningstar PRS Screener</a>.<br />
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I have a stake in <b>CIMB Principal PRS Plus Equity Asia Pacific ex Japan Equity Fund (<span style="color: blue;">+16.09%, 1.3 years holding period</span>) </b>and will continue to contribute. Thanks largely to the RM500 PRS youth incentive scheme, this year's losses due to China's selling rout in January is greatly minimized. With a risk factor of 9/10 it is therefore expected that volatility this huge -5% at certain times is not a big surprise. I might also be looking into splinting half my PRS contribution into <b>AmPrs Asia Pacific REITs</b> (launched in Nov 2014) as it has exposure to Asia Pacific region.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion:</span></b><br />
Investing in PRS is a long term game as such I on hold to my strategy that is it in Asia Pacific with it's young population and rising middle class that will fuel the world economy for decades to come.Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-33840158774151004402016-03-17T00:25:00.000+08:002016-03-17T00:25:06.610+08:00Aboi's Updates For Malaysian Equities Mutual Funds for 1H'2016<div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the last update on Mutual Funds in Malaysia. Links to my first two:</span><br />
<a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2016/02/abois-updates-for-malaysian-bond-mutual.html"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Aboi's Updates For Malaysian Bond Mutual Funds for 1H'2016</span></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2016/02/abois-updates-for-malaysian-mixed.html">Aboi's Updates For Malaysian Mixed Assets Mutual Funds for 1H'2016</a></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 18.2px;">TER is the total expense ratio, a measure of total cost (purchase, redemption, auditing, management fees) of a fund to the investor. The lower the better.</span></td></tr>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Commentary</span></b></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;">[1] Again due to the nature of risk in equities the top rankings between 2H'2015 vs now is not close. Overall 2015 was a challenging market for Malaysia.</span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"> </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: blue;">It is very clear now which funds perform better under stress </span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">(during bad times, e.g. Msia market dropped due to cheaper oil and weakening myr, China's panic selling; twice in fact and GST's impact).</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 16px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">[2] Only Estpring Small Cap and Kenanga GF performed well under stress which managed to eke out 11.76% and 6.55% returns. My other picks under Equity Asia Pacific ex Japan did not do well; not surprising due to Emerging Market outflows owing to stronger USD.</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;">[3] As of this writing,</span> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: blue;">I continue to own <b>Kenanga Growth Fund</b></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><b> (</b><span style="color: blue;"><b>+</b></span><b><span style="color: blue;">64.89%, 3 years holding period</span><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> which has been performing above my expectation. Now the fund has a high level of cash 20% as such I expect it to wait for opportunities to accumulate during bad times.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">[4] </span><span style="color: blue;">I also own<b style="color: #444444;"> Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><b><span style="color: #444444;">(</span><span style="color: blue;">+5.14%, 2 years holding period</span><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></b><span style="color: #444444;">. This fund </span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">(TER of 1.31%) </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">is now 3 years old and there is really still no useful data to show e.g. 5 years data. In due time I will share of course. However the fund did not do well this year as it's s</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">tock selection in the UK was a key detractor, led by Weir Group. The </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">engineering services provider was hurt by the continued sell-off in the oil & gas sector.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I will continue to hold and weather the storm. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.com/2014/01/aberdeen-funds-in-malaysiaare-they-iron.html"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Aberdeen Funds in Malaysia..Are They "Iron" Clad Investments?</span></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.com/2014/02/aboi-to-finally-invest-in-aberdeen.html">Aboi To Finally Invest In Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund</a></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">[5] Lastly I also own </span><b>CIMB Principal PRS Plus Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity Fund</b> <b>(</b><b><span style="color: blue;">+17.90%, 1.4 years holding period</span></b><b>)</b><span style="color: #444444;">. This fund is a feeder fund and it feeds of CIMB Principal Asia Pacific Dynamic Income Fund.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Here's risk-adjusted returns measure using the five principles of risk measures; alpha, beta, r-squared, std deviation and Sharpe ratio. I will just explain what they represent rather than showing hefty equations.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp">Alpha</a>: A +ve of 1.0 means the fund has outperform its benchmark index by 1.0%. The opposite goes for -ve.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp">Beta</a>: A +ve of 1.2 means the fund is 20% more volatile than the index. The higher the beta suggest it offers the possibility of higher returns but also posing more risk. The opposite goes for -ve. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp">R-squared</a>: A higher R-squared will indicate a more useful beta value (85 to 100) aka good correlation. A low R-squared value means you should ignore the beta. It's a measure on well the fund is measured against an appropriate benchmark.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/standarddeviation.asp">Standard deviation</a>: </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">A large dispersion tells us how much the return on the fund is deviating from the expected normal returns.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp">Sharpe Ratio</a>: The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance has been. It describes how much excess return you get for extra volatility you endure in holding riskier asset.</span></span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;"><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Source: MorningStar - Rating & Risks section for respective fund</span></td></tr>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Now I have accepted the fact that Small Caps funds naturally have higher Std Dev due to their risk profile. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">This explains why the Preservation rating of Small-cap is lower around 1-3. By comparing Sharpe ratios the crown belongs to </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Eastspring Investments Small-cap though I must caution the degree of </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">volatility +- 18.70%, question is can you stomach it?</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Second. Long gone are the Sharpe ratios of 2+. The Malaysian market has plateaued with more downside risks than upside potential due to political uncertainties, weakening myr, GST's impact and low oil prices. </span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">My ratings still stand with </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Kenanga Growth and Equity Income but I already have KGF so there is no need for me to increase my exposure to the lackluster Malaysia equities market.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;">I continue to hold my view that </span><b><span style="color: blue;">investing in Asia (exc Japan) is still the way to go - LONG TERM</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">. America's equities market is still not that cheap. The US Fed interest rate hike should be very gradual in 2016 which does not go well with equities. Europe is now battling with Brexit so the market will have some noise in 1H'2016. China is reforming its economy to be more inward, they will need more time to reform their financial sector. From now on it is a lot more difficult to get the returns we once did during the bull run from 2009-2013. </span><b><span style="color: blue;">I d</span></b></span><b><span style="color: blue;">o not expect record high returns</span></b><span style="color: #444444;">. It is still best to hold cash and wait. Feng Shui says something bad will happen in April 2016 all the way to early July.</span></span></span></span><br />
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<b style="background-color: white; color: blue; line-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">My five rules of choosing funds:</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 16px;">#1 </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">Avoid choosing big sized popular funds!</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">#2 </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">Compare fund expenses!</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">#3 </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">Information on the fund manager!</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">#4 </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">Good funds don't advertise.</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">#5 Avoid the usual </span><span style="line-height: 18px;">past performance > riskiness of fund > manager's rep (some don't) > fund expenses > popularity of fund. L</span><span style="line-height: 18px;">ook from the opposite direction and do your filtering from there.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 14px;">Disclaimer:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"> The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.</span></div>
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Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-40675703570955114742016-02-25T23:39:00.000+08:002016-02-25T23:55:32.534+08:00Aboi's Updates For Malaysian Mixed Assets Mutual Funds for 1H'2016<div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Two days ago I covered the Bonds category: <a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2016/02/abois-updates-for-malaysian-bond-mutual.html">Aboi's Updates For Malaysian Bond Mutual Funds for 1H'2016</a>. </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I continue the series of update with Mixed Assets. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">It is called mixed asset because it has exposure on both the bond market/money market as well as equities (remind you again stocks). The exposure percentages differ based on fund prospectus (make sure you read them after screening the funds) so they can generally be divided into four:</span><br />
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0.25em 0px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Aggressive (e.g. 70% equities/30% fixed income)</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0.25em 0px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Balanced (e.g. 50/50)</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0.25em 0px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Conservative (e.g. 30% equities/70% fixed income)</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0.25em 0px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Flexible (up to 100% in equities/fixed income)</span></li>
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<b style="background-color: white; line-height: 17.9861px;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Mixed Assets</span></b><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwba6PkNIa1s1PQ-5nTgi-cpvSfU5_9XMCKIx21QUTJ_OyUqWGq6gz_UGjuSxOPltQXaIWV7UmV0E0ygP5bJoJhvXFZhRcoKsiWfm0aP4RK1D0VfOwaKBWVrEfI8ftknJyXHWBUi_6lMtS/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwba6PkNIa1s1PQ-5nTgi-cpvSfU5_9XMCKIx21QUTJ_OyUqWGq6gz_UGjuSxOPltQXaIWV7UmV0E0ygP5bJoJhvXFZhRcoKsiWfm0aP4RK1D0VfOwaKBWVrEfI8ftknJyXHWBUi_6lMtS/s640/Capture.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">TER is the total expense ratio, a measure of total cost (purchase, redemption, auditing, management fees) of a fund to the investor. The lower the better.</span></td></tr>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Commentary</span></b></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="line-height: 16px;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">[1] My previous picks for Flexible (Es Inv Dyanmic) and Conservative (Affin Hwang SIF) continue to do well and their rankings are maintained.</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">[2] It's a different story for Balanced (Affin Hwang SBF). This fund was previously exposed to Malaysia but has changed its mandate to invest in Asia. This has not gone well as evident from its 1 year return. I am putting my recommendation on hold until I get another round of data on 2H'2016.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;">[3] As of this writing, I continue to own </span><b><span style="color: #444444;">Affin Hwang Select Income Fund (</span><span style="color: blue;">+36.24%, 5.1 years holding period</span><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> which has exposure in Asia ex Japan and has been performing within my expectation (6% to 8% returns per annum).</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">I will use a better risk-adjusted returns measure using the five principles of risk measures; alpha, beta, r-squared, std deviation and Sharpe ratio. I will just explain what they represent rather than showing hefty equations.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp">Alpha</a>: A +ve of 1.0 means the fund has outperform its benchmark index by 1.0%. The opposite goes for -ve.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp">Beta</a>: A +ve of 1.2 means the fund is 20% more volatile than the index. The higher the beta suggest it offers the possibility of higher returns but also posing more risk. The opposite goes for -ve. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp">R-squared</a>: A higher R-squared will indicate a more useful beta value (85 to 100) aka good correlation. A low R-squared value means you should ignore the beta. It's a measure on well the fund is measured against an appropriate benchmark.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/standarddeviation.asp">Standard deviation</a>: </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">A large dispersion tells us how much the return on the fund is deviating from the expected normal returns.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp">Sharpe Ratio</a>: The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance has been. It describes how much excess return you get for extra volatility you endure in holding riskier asset.</span></span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Source: MorningStar - Rating & Risks section for respective fund</span></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;">Eastspring Inv Bal used to be under my watch list but now I am recommending it. This is because </span><span style="color: #444444;">Affin Hwang Select Balanced is now considered beyond Malaysia (now Asia), Eastspring will stand alone in its category and that is within Malaysia. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">The drawback: </span><b><span style="color: red;">high Std Dev value of 10.64%</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> (in a way </span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;"><b><span style="color: blue;">behaving more like a Flexible fund</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> rather than a Balanced one) so have some caution there. In a flexible fund it can be as high as 100% equities as the manager see fit therefore it boils down to your investing risk level.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">Why not RHB-OSK Smart Balanced? It's scary. Even though it is a 50/50 balanced fund, its 50% equities portion is invested in Small-Medium Caps. You can clearly see the Std Dev of 13.91% (the highest among all and </span><b><span style="color: red;">behaves a lot more like an Equity fund instead</span></b><span style="color: #444444;">).</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Affin Hwang Select Income continues to be my choice (for safer reasons). But note that RHB-OSK Smart Income has been giving far better returns in 2013 & 2015 only and thus making it look better especially for the 3-years and 1 year returns. Like it's bigger brother Smart Balanced, it is also invested in </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Small-Medium Caps. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Sharpe ratio is explained with the higher Std Dev (double of that of SIF).</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 18px;"><b>This info is still relevant till this day</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">-> What could possibly explain Eastspring's rapid ascension in the rankings? Perhaps it was the establishment of a new independent brand name from Prudential and possibly an internal shakeup for all we know. All I know is that has been operating under 'Management Team' in early 2012 as per MorningStar report. </span></span></span><a href="http://www.eastspringinvestments.com.my/downloads/20120208163528_News-New%20Brand_Press%20Relase_ENGFINAL.pdf" style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Prudential announces new Asia asset management brand – Eastspring Investments</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 14px;">Disclaimer:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"> The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-87057885618711362942016-02-24T22:43:00.000+08:002016-02-24T22:44:28.890+08:00March Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)<br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">**It is <b>easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**</span><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is the 9th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) </span><b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM3.50.</span></b></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">March 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Oil continues to stay within lower $30s. As long as there is no consensus to cut production and scale back supply price will stay suppressed. Other reads:</span><br />
<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-comments-by-saudi-arabias-al-naimi-slammed-oil-futures-2016-02-23?dist=tbeforebell" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Why comments by Saudi Arabia’s al-Naimi slammed oil futures (see link)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarazervos/2016/01/26/saudi-arabia-shale-iran-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-oil-crisis/#221cb348794c" style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Learn About The Oil Crisis (see link)</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">MYR strengthening and weakening back and forth almost following the swing of oil price if you compare carefully. The way I see it the only way for MYR to bounce back is [1] oil price recovers towards $50-$60 range [2] resolution of the 1MDB issues. As of now both are nowhere to be seen. </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">Still </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">I think this is about where MYR will stand (hard to imagine it will weaken to >4.5 so it's time to change foreign currencies back to MYR, hold cash and wait for "jualan harga murah". Other reads:</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102915/will-2016-bring-bear-market.asp" style="line-height: 16.8px;">Will 2016 Bring a Bear Market? (see link)</a></span><br />
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<i style="color: blue; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?</b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><b>How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? </b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">RM/L between Jan and Feb is not much of a difference 1.25 (Jan) vs 1.23 (Feb). Oil price edged up from $34 to $35 but this is offset by stronger MYR (4.36 -> 4.17). As such </span></span></span></span><b style="color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><span style="color: blue;">I will predict that fuel price will be maintained @ RM1.75 for RON95.</span></b><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> Price should <b>NOT </b>go down but just to be on the safe side just pump anytime before 1st of March 2016 (Tuesday) whenever it is convenient for you.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"><b><span style="color: red;">**</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">I still think the price should be RM1.65 for Feb and even so for March (because the mean and actual price delta is the highest I have ever seen), </span><b><span style="color: red;">govt maybe trying to get subsidies from us</span></b><span style="color: #444444;">. Perhaps the budget recalibration cuts wasn't enough so they cleverly offset it thru here. Just my 2 cents</span></span><span style="color: red;"><b>**</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). <b><span style="color: blue;">My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 3.50.</span></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">**It is </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;">easier to predict the direction of fuel price</b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 16.8px;"> than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-28286119734501482152016-02-23T22:42:00.001+08:002016-02-23T22:42:23.596+08:00Aboi's Updates For Malaysian Bond Mutual Funds for 1H'2016<div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What were the returns of my choices in 2H'2015? </span><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">AmDynamicBond (4.69%), PB Islamic Bond (4.42%), AMB Dana Arif (4.61%), Affin Hwang Select Bond (5.38%). These are inline with my expectation of 4%-6% returns per annum. Every bond fund</span><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> </span><b style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">provided a return which is more than a fixed deposit account</span></b><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">(with the rate you can get a year ago which should be ~3.50%)</span></div>
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<b style="background-color: white; line-height: 17.9861px;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Bonds</span></b><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp9mxyYM1-nwdqEFGdkh6kWOIFh-9sT-h7vDNPqoM9gT_vzHvu_py_xUH5CB9NdZgiOW7B7BjuKhNW2e9ofbzjheDdgfrhG8bHsslheChZg8bFxJ8_8fJi91xgyKsxBx-nrPbgxXqtZ7Oe/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp9mxyYM1-nwdqEFGdkh6kWOIFh-9sT-h7vDNPqoM9gT_vzHvu_py_xUH5CB9NdZgiOW7B7BjuKhNW2e9ofbzjheDdgfrhG8bHsslheChZg8bFxJ8_8fJi91xgyKsxBx-nrPbgxXqtZ7Oe/s640/Capture.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">TER is the total expense ratio, a measure of total cost (purchase, redemption, auditing, management fees) of a fund to the investor. The lower the better.</span></td></tr>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Commentary</span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">[1] The top three fund choices are difficult for their performance are almost the same. Furthermore the TER ratios are good and close that it's negligible.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">[2] As such I'm ranking them based on their long term track record in which AmDynamic wins hand down. Overall Morningstar ratings for three of them are 5, 4 and 3 in that order.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">[3] For outside exposure, Affin Hwang Select Bond remains top choice.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">[4] As of this writing, I own </span><b><span style="color: #444444;">AmDynamic Bond Fund (</span><span style="color: blue;">+12.02%, 2.4 years holding period</span><span style="color: #444444;">) </span></b><span style="color: #444444;">and plan to add more.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">[5] I will also inject some cash into <b>Affin Hwang Select Bond Fund</b> (Asia Bond) as part of diversification outside of Malaysia.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;"><b>Red: Fund</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">, </span><span style="color: orange;"><b>Orange: Category</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">, </span><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><b>Green: Index</b> </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">I still cannot stomach to recommend AMB Income Trust yet nor Eastspring Investment Trust. A fund that leap frogs in ranking quickly may suggest that it is involved in high risk high return choices. It is of my opinion that a bond fund should be the </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: blue;">least risky asset class</span></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"> (vs Mixed Assets & Equities type) and as such should strive for a balanced, consistent and sustainable returns. A good bond fund should give a <b>higher return than that of a fixed deposit account but not at the expense of a lot more risk</b>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Take a look at what I meant by 'extraordinary results' which by my experience is associated to more risk taking in search of higher returns. The question is, <b>what if those high risk takes don't turn out well?</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">*In my 2H'2015's update I did say that AMB and </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">RHB-OSK returns should be </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">more normalized and expected yearly returns of a typical good bond fund.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"> Indeed the 1-year return is about 6.37% and 7.08%.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhnSnobIAS5jpMSOPrpCWBx_e7AQIrzUfVbnt4h_tUGtE7s1aqE0BzI2RIquvLGZmhRpgjcY1O8d8hrmaiuVg5Rk2AUga8HcKQPElcwvgmRJon74Bo9TFMXpIR8e1amtqcA67d6W9HlA2h/s1600/trust-horz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhnSnobIAS5jpMSOPrpCWBx_e7AQIrzUfVbnt4h_tUGtE7s1aqE0BzI2RIquvLGZmhRpgjcY1O8d8hrmaiuVg5Rk2AUga8HcKQPElcwvgmRJon74Bo9TFMXpIR8e1amtqcA67d6W9HlA2h/s640/trust-horz.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Examine the 'Extraordinary' returns for a Bond fund. Both these funds have </span><b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;">very high Std Deviation values</span></b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"> (5.13%, 4.09% and 3.48% respectively). AMB Income Trust is more favourable due to a far better Sharpe ratio of 1.47, Eastspring's 0.66 and RHB-OSK's 1.17.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNTfbHnHlKRcxbRZAPO_jFXm03713ZcQpTOdsAJnx7DzTynUcIsJDUjfE40_uDi_ezqlV9vrQyIv-tuAzTEZ0AaFp7W_h7I-6Zt21mm-Ol33DQGzdasXuYO59CPIDvdvxbJZL1CEiw_A0P/s1600/amdynamic-horz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="154" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNTfbHnHlKRcxbRZAPO_jFXm03713ZcQpTOdsAJnx7DzTynUcIsJDUjfE40_uDi_ezqlV9vrQyIv-tuAzTEZ0AaFp7W_h7I-6Zt21mm-Ol33DQGzdasXuYO59CPIDvdvxbJZL1CEiw_A0P/s640/amdynamic-horz.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The more consistent performers under the Bond umbrella. (Std deviation values from left to right: 2.33%, 1.33%, 1.19% and 2.47% only) with Sharpe ratio of nearly 1 except AmDynamic at 0.33. (due to massive redemption and reopening of subscription in 3Q2013)</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCF_lgRtsfK45wbiOB-OfmUrXoBV6T_pbE58wveIKqWgqvRPWi_pzma76SQAVxvKijIhPvuhL4nQKujzzH0TQX9MB9gITMkZYkD5SqY6sYj4n9_aH_kPoKHH8vALvz4sGyfScBXa5W-1dB/s1600/Capture2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCF_lgRtsfK45wbiOB-OfmUrXoBV6T_pbE58wveIKqWgqvRPWi_pzma76SQAVxvKijIhPvuhL4nQKujzzH0TQX9MB9gITMkZYkD5SqY6sYj4n9_aH_kPoKHH8vALvz4sGyfScBXa5W-1dB/s640/Capture2.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Source: MorningStar - Rating & Risks section for respective fund</span></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">I will use a better risk-adjusted returns measure using the five principles of risk measures; alpha, beta, r-squared, std deviation and Sharpe ratio. I will just explain what they represent rather than showing hefty equations.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp">Alpha</a>: A +ve of 1.0 means the fund has outperform its benchmark index by 1.0%. The opposite goes for -ve.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp">Beta</a>: A +ve of 1.2 means the fund is 20% more volatile than the index. The higher the beta suggest it offers the possibility of higher returns but also posing more risk. The opposite goes for -ve. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp">R-squared</a>: A higher R-squared will indicate a more useful beta value (85 to 100) aka good correlation. A low R-squared value means you should ignore the beta. It's a measure on well the fund is measured against an appropriate benchmark.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/standarddeviation.asp">Standard deviation</a>: </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">A large dispersion tells us how much the return on the fund is deviating from the expected normal returns.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp">Sharpe Ratio</a>: The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance has been. It describes how much excess return you get for extra volatility you endure in holding riskier asset.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Though the Sharpe Ratio value for AMB Income Trust & RHB-OSK Islamic Bond looks solid it is difficult for me to swallow such deviation. if you look at their 10 year history they look a bit more shaky. Until these values go down to a more reasonable level I will shy away no matter how 'extraordinary' the short term returns are. </span><b style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">It's all about managing risk</span></b><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 14px;">Disclaimer:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"> The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.</span></div>
Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3863347022021223138.post-40219193533793108672016-02-21T21:42:00.002+08:002016-02-23T22:44:08.116+08:00Aboi's Investment Strategy for 2016 - Outlook Added<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv9qP8GF38D1xMo-_IqerneTD55MqaMVx5j5TGJ1C3LqWHrmN2ZtbQM9523iDRmJ7-w-ahKieRBtpxpNKptvIOuiO_H-znuOuPGV1VcjxPEsYlDDVlaTmToe7TWYw3UULJg-CZoI1euDhd/s1600/20160102_wom000_0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv9qP8GF38D1xMo-_IqerneTD55MqaMVx5j5TGJ1C3LqWHrmN2ZtbQM9523iDRmJ7-w-ahKieRBtpxpNKptvIOuiO_H-znuOuPGV1VcjxPEsYlDDVlaTmToe7TWYw3UULJg-CZoI1euDhd/s640/20160102_wom000_0.png" width="640" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">As of Dec 2015 by EIU</span></td></tr>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Brief 2016 Economic Outlook</span></u></b><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>US:</b> Economy that continues to grow moderately. The much anticipated interest rate hike cycle is expected to be conducted at a "gradual pace". I don't think they will raise it up 1% within this year.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>China:</b> Multi year rebalancing act has brought growth to a new targeted range of 6.5% a level that is likely to be more sustainable over the long term and down from the double digit growth rates seen prior to the Global Financial Crisis.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Japan and Europe:</b> Bank of Japan to expand its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing in 2016 to try to meet its inflation target of 2%. The cyclical recovery in Europe is expected to take further hold and the central banks of Japan and Europe expected to continue to ease monetary policy to bolster economic growth.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Malaysia:</b> Inflation to edge higher to 3%+. Consumer sentiment is likely to be dampened going forward. Weak ringgit environment is likely to stay for some time, with no immediate catalyst that will strengthen the currency significantly going forward. Various sectors to face headwinds; O&G, plantation, banks, telecommunications and property. Non-oil exports and investments to support growth; e.g. exporters and construction.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Others:</b> Commodity prices and the USD have become increasingly negatively-correlated in recent years, with the recent strength in the USD coinciding with the lowest commodity prices since early-2009. I would caution against mounting expectations of an ever-strengthening USD. Asian and EM currencies are already trading at multi-year lows against the greenback and I think it's already as much as it can go.</span><br />
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<b><u><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">How did my Investment Strategy came about then?</span></u></b><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2016/02/abois-investment-strategy-for-2016.html">http://aboiwealthpot.blogspot.my/2016/02/abois-investment-strategy-for-2016.html</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Looking forward, expected returns no longer justify an overweight position in equities given that expected returns are not as attractive as before, reducing the expected reward for the amount of risk taken. With my current exposure to equities a neutral allocation to equities vis-à-vis bonds is advocated. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">-> (Add) AmDynamic Bond - Class: Malaysia Bond</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">-> (Add) Affin Hwang Select Bond - Class: Asia Bond</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Reits were battered during the second half of 2015 alongside conventional equities, the decline in their share prices had the effect of pushing up yields. It is worth noting that the majority of the Reits are currently trading near book value, suggesting that downside risks are currently minimal.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">-> (Add) Malaysian REIT for high dividend yield play - Class: Malaysia Property</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">At just 12.4X 2015 earnings, Asian equities remain undervalued at this juncture, and I believe that a recovery in the earnings revisions cycle for Asia ex-Japan equities will be a key catalyst for Asian equity valuations to mean-revert higher. A normalisation to 14.5X PE would see the market deliver a 21% annualised return by end-2017 (or nearly 50% upside on a cumulative basis, including dividends), with the North Asian markets accounting for most of the potential returns.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">-> (Add) CIMB Principal PRS Asia Pacific ex Japan Equity Fund - Class: Asia ex Japan Equity</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As of 17 December 2015, the FBM Small Cap Index traded at 12.5X, relatively lower as compared to the KLCI Index’s 16.4X. As small cap stocks are known to be more volatile than their large cap counterparts, I would advice caution and to allocate no more than 10% weightage of their entire portfolio.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">-> (Add) Eastspring Investments Small-Cap Fund - Class: Malaysia Small to Medium Companies Equity</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">What about Gold? Honestly I do not know yet. It's hard to guess the fair value to be frank this is why it is so damn difficult to decide.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In conclusion, 2016 is likely to be a more challenging year as compared to 2015. Nevertheless, there will undoubtedly be opportunities for those who are well prepared. Good luck!</span>Intelligent Investorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03890497415595923500noreply@blogger.com0