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Decided to make adjustments on the way I blog & share due to time constraints and other commitments. In the coming weeks you should see them. Short updates but more frequent & concise.

Monday, September 1, 2014

Aboi's Updates For September 2014


Here's the link for my last market sense: Aboi's Updates for June 2014
For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.
  1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
  2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2

Recap my June's commentary. 

Volume is a huge surprise. I did not follow more recent news but something is brewing, smart money is planning for a move. The volume coupled with lower closing shows an up thrust which to me is a sign of weakness. -> The twenty point drop did happen the day after my June's posting. Ever since Bursa has been trading sideways. Indicators do suggest that the trend will be as such. Until after BNM's two MPC meeting and after Budget 2015 I will not change my end of year Bursa target of 2000 (assuming no financial crisis). Resistance and support lines are loosely created, I'm not interested as I believe it's gonna trade sideways until our Budget announcement.

I will now highlight key things from AMP Capital's economic update (FoC, updated every Monday):
1. Ukraine crisis has become more complicated due to Russian intervention. 
2. US economic data is pretty favourable; strong home sales & increased consumer confidence.
3. Japan data disappointing; softness in household spending and increased unemployment.
4. Europe upcoming ECB meeting to discuss about deflation worries and possible 50/50 QE program.

Portfolio unreversed gains & losses
Because much of the weight of the portfolio is invested in Bursa, it has also been performing up and down. I will need to diversify more. Equities are not performing. Funds have been compensating for the losses but not enough to cover. I've stopped increasing my position in Aberdeen's World Fund. You may read about my post Aboi To Finally Invest In Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund about exposure into developed markets: US, Europe and Japan.

Portfolio composition. Equities 60%, Mixed Assets 15%, REITs 10%, Bonds 5% and Cash 10%.
Targets for returns p.a. Equities 12%, Mixed Assets 8%, REITs 6%, Bonds 5% and Cash 3.75%.

**Changed Aberdeen from BUY to HOLD, US stock market is overpriced.
**HwangDBS Select Income fund gross income declaration of RM0.005/unit (reinvested all into 85 new units)
**Kenanga Growth Fund gross income declaration of RM0.06/unit. (reinvested all into 484 new units)

#1 Portfolio target for the fourth portfolio year @ RM140k for April 2014 has already EXCEEDEDPortfolio target for the fifth portfolio year @ RM152k for April 2015. The TWRR (time weighted annual return rate is now at 9.58% (down 1.32%vs my target of 8.80%).

What's up for my 2014?
***Please NOTE that KEEP IN VIEW is not the final decision***
[1] Invest roughly 25% of cash balance in Aberdeen's Islamic World Equity Fund. 
        -> Completed, no more new positions.
[2] Par my remaining cash balance to less or equal to 10% level. 
        -> Completed, see portfolio.
[3] Invest in a new mREIT: Time To Revisit mREITS in 2014 when yields are right. 
        -> Keep in view.
[4] Invest another fund, diversify further into small cap-medium cap companies where I have no exposure. 
        -> Keep in view, likely to be utilizing EPF account 1.
[5] Possible buy of gold commodity: Speaking Of Recent Gold Demand Trends. My opinion is that gold will see resistance at $1340. 
        -> Keep in view, central banks purchases is supporting gold prices making it difficult for me.
[6] Taking a look (not necessarily invest) in Padini holdings. 
        -> Incoming.
[7] Put some cash into Fixed Deposit. 
        -> Completed, very small amount. It will be used every 2 years :)

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.

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