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Decided to make adjustments on the way I blog & share due to time constraints and other commitments. In the coming weeks you should see them. Short updates but more frequent & concise.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Aboi's Updates For October 2013

Here's the link for the previous month's market sense: Aboi's Updates for September 2013
For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.
  1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
  2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2

Like I said before and before, Bursa is having resistance at 1800 level. It has happened again. In fact I'm getting pretty bored with Malaysian equities already, they are expensive to acquire, has limited upside and our economy is going less robust than ever. Will the inflow of money due to US govt shutdown help us? Not much, in fact not a lot at all. Consider that other emerging markets have more oomph than us, I see no light for Malaysia in terms of its attractiveness. Below taken from

2005 Market Cap                        2013 June Market Cap

Malaysia  184 bn       490 bn  (+166%)
Singapore  227 bn                  752 bn  (+231%)
Indonesia 77.6 bn     477 bn  (+514%)
Taiwan  433 bn                      754 bn  (+74%)
Shenzhen  125bn                    1,190 bn  (+852%)
Philippines  32.4bn    230 bn  (+609%)
Korea  459 bn                       3,051  (+564%)
Thailand  122 bn       408 bn  (+234%)

And .....I can't help but to repeat this :)
"As was expected, after the election the feel good feeling has GONE WITH THE WIND. Based on Bursa historical growth rate I think Bursa will only top at most 1800-1850 by year's end (with the former more likely). Thus as mentioned in the previous month, "the rest of 2013 will a be TEST OF PATIENCE for many investors: retail and institutional". Since BN won re-election with rather dubious voting results market is not going to be THAT excited as there is nothing new to expect. I am setting two support lines @ 1750 followed by 1700 and resistance at 1800." I will begin to analyze several US based stocks as I begin moving my cash flow out of Malaysia. I have also not yet decided how to combine both portfolios or if it will happen that way. Plus my Bursa's one is more organized.

Second my portfolio increased in value is negligible roughly RM100. Supermx corrected to a more appropriate level after its surge in price. Genting recovered slightly, as you noted I have added AmDynamicBond into my portfolio. As usual AMP Capital has good piece of information (freely available, no sign ups) on weekly global market & global economic update. It is usually updated every Monday afternoon so go read it when you have the time. This month's major highlights would be the US Shutdown and Debt Ceiling debate. In my opinion, I do not think US will default as it is a risky gamble for this scenario to happen. The US economy is not healthy enough to withstand such a shock and Obama's administration/Congress will do something to make sure US recovery is not greatly jeopardized, these politicians also do have economic stakes.

Portfolio composition. Equities 50%, Mixed Assets 15%, REITs 10%, Bonds 5% and Cash 20%.
Targets for returns p.a. Equities type 12%, Mixed Assets 8%, REITs 6%, Bonds 5% and Cash 3.75%.

*Icapital Special Dividend 9.5 sen less 25% tax. 

#1 Added AmDynamic Bond fund into portfolio; taking the opportunity as subscription has reopened.
#2 Changed Kenanga Growth from BUY TO HOLD status due to Msia's limited upside for rest of the year.
#3 Portfolio target for third year @ RM128k for April 2013 and fourth year @ RM140k for April 2014. Third year target EXCEEDED! Fourth year has also EXCEEDED but let's wait till April 2014 to declare absolute victory :)
#4 Decided NOT to add PARKSON in the end. Would continue to use ICAP as proxy to Parkson to be on the safe side. On another note, there is nothing to buy in Malaysia equities, things are expensive nowadays.

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.

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