Aboi's Portfolio Review For September/October 2015

Highlights
- Volatile coming month and October: Weekly Market Highlights September (1)
- Continue to maintain all ratings, similar to June, July and Sept'2015: Archive
- No new additions in September.
- Sold all my US holdings. Cash is king now.

Portfolio target composition. Equities 65%, Bonds 25% and Supplementary 10%.

Notes

- AFFIN HWANG SIF, 0.005 (MYR / UNITS), UNIT REINVESTMENT, SEP-08-2015

Comments
- Changed format for security reasons; no longer quote values. Instead it's a simply profit and loss calculation (including dividend & unit reinvestment).
- Next month I will revise Fair Value and add Margin of Safety (MoS) column. Also I will add Trade History as well my Watch List.

Supermax (Equity Malaysia)
- Maintain HOLD. Uncertainty in local stock market.
- Raised fair value (RM2.11) - following BursaMKPLC consensus target price. 
- Declared interim single tier dividend of 4% to be paid on October 22, 2015. 
- Q2'15 results are out. It was a weak quarter due to lower-than-expected sales volume and margin.
- Stronger USD did help exports albeit a small extend (2.8% revenue incr q-o-q)
No new developments - stronger USD will help due to exports. See below for previous month June'2015 update.
- Growth in capacity from two new plants in Meru, Klang which will double nitrile gloves production from 6.9b to 12.3b pieces p.a.
- SUPERMAX CORPORATION - 27 AUG 2015

Genting (Equity Malaysia)

- Maintain HOLD. Uncertainty in local stock market.
- Maintain fair value (RM10.69). 
- Announced an equity buyback for 4% of its issued share capital after getting mandate during AGM held on June 11, 2015.
- Q2'15 results are out. 8% decline in casino revenue across
all geographical segments. Poorer luck factor and the sustained decline in CPO prices. 

- However most of its current investments will only come to fruition in 2H15/2016 so there is no short term catalyst to prop up share price.
- GENTING BHD - 27 AUG 2015

Freight (Equity Malaysia)

- Maintain HOLD. Uncertainty in local stock market.

- Lowered fair value (RM1.44) - following BursaMKPLC consensus target price. No new developments. See below for previous month June'2015 update.

- Stock took a beating due to cessation of a 3PL contract and temporary closure of a warehouse for renovation but expected to slowly recover.

- Growth will be supported by its core Sea Freight division and trade within Asia-Australia region.
- BIMBSEC - FREIGHT MANAGEMENT - 20150827 - 4QFY15 - RESULTS REVIEWS


ICapital (Closed-End Fund Equity Malaysia)
- Maintain BUY.
- Huge discount from current price to NAV (-17.27%)

Affin Hwang Select Income Fund (Equity & Bond - Asia)

- Maintain BUY.
- Asia Pacific's healthy credit market more or less can offset stronger USD in the coming months. See below for previous month June'2015 update.
-Strong USD will make headwinds for Asia markets as such fund pare down exposure in equities (30% -> 20%). 
- Also doubled cash levels to 7% and continue exposure on Asian credit market pending US Fed's direction in the 2H15 (possible hike in Oct / Dec).   

FUND PERFORMANCE (BID TO BID CUMULATIVE RETURNS)

Period 1 wk 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth YTD 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr Bid to Bid Returns (%) - RM -0.2 -0.6 0.3 2.5 6.3 8.7 16.4 20.4 46.9 115.4 Performance figures are absolute returns based on the price of the fund as at September 17, 2015 (Last updated on September 21, 2015),on NAV-to-NAV basis,with dividends being 'reinvested' on the dividend date

Kenanga Growth Fund (Equity Malaysia)

- Maintain HOLD. Uncertainty in local stock market.
- Because fund held so much cash, impact from recent KLCI selloff activity is not too worrisome yet as year-to-date return is still in positive territory.

- Lack of catalyst in the short term, fund holding high level of cash ~20-25%.

FUND PERFORMANCE (BID TO BID CUMULATIVE RETURNS) Period 1 wk 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth YTD 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr Bid to Bid Returns (%) - RM 2.7 7.0 0.8 3.2 13.61 4.5 36.7 60.7 131.5 379.8 Performance figures are absolute returns based on the price of the fund as at September 17, 2015 (Last updated on September 21, 2015),on NAV-to-NAV basis,with dividends being 'reinvested' on the dividend date.

AmDynamic Bond Fund (Bond Malaysia)
- Maintain BUY.
- No change in my previous commentary. BNM has maintained the base lending rate in the 5th MPC.

- Mainly invested in local corporate bonds ~80%.

- BNM will likely continue its policy pause and maintain cautious stance with a "wait-and-see" approach on US Fed direction (a possible hike in Oct / Dec).

FUND PERFORMANCE (BID TO BID CUMULATIVE RETURNS) Period 1 wk 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth YTD 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr Bid to Bid Returns (%) - RM -0.2 -1.3 -0.3 1.6 2.74 4.7 7.4 10.6 32.2 110.3 Performance figures are absolute returns based on the price of the fund as at September 17, 2015 (Last updated on September 21, 2015),on NAV-to-NAV basis,with dividends being 'reinvested' on the dividend date.

Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund (Equity Global)

- Maintain BUY.
- European markets recovered and with fund's medium exposure in Europe, fund has done well. Also it has USD exposure further strengthening its returns since the MYR has weaken considerably in July.
- Fund has no exposure to China's overheated stock market and slowing economy. Fund also has 18% exposure to the already lofty valuations in US equities so impact is minimized if a correction occurs.
- Fund continues to be very diversified globally; Healthcare (21%), Materials (16%), Energy (15%), Industrial (13%), Consumer Staples (13%).

FUND PERFORMANCE (BID TO BID CUMULATIVE RETURNS) Period 1 wk 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth YTD 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr Bid to Bid Returns (%) - RM -0.6 -2.6 1.8 4.7 8.82 11.1 22.5 - - - Performance figures are absolute returns based on the price of the fund as at September 15, 2015 (Last updated on September 21, 2015),on NAV-to-NAV basis,with dividends being 'reinvested' on the dividend date.

CIMB Principal PRS Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity Fund (Equity Asia)

- Maintain BUY.
- Shanghai's stock market continue to weight down to date but fund's exposure is minimal so I'm safe there is enough safety margin to absorb it. 
- Fund holding exposure to China is minimal ~10%.
- Positive on Asian Equities but growth will be more scarce moving forward as regional portfolios are fully invested hence earnings will depend highly on stock selection.

FUND PERFORMANCE (BID TO BID CUMULATIVE RETURNS) Period 1 wk 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth YTD 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr Bid to Bid Returns (%) - RM -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 2.3 9.14 15.9 35.9 - - - Performance figures are absolute returns based on the price of the fund as at September 17, 2015 (Last updated on September 21, 2015),on NAV-to-NAV basis,with dividends being 'reinvested' on the dividend date.

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.