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Sunday, August 30, 2015

September Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)

**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**

This is the third time I'm posting my prediction. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).

Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :)

Sep 2015
Global oil price has a huge volatility over the month of August from China's rout to other events in oil producing countries. In August, oil declined the sharpest (~20%) decline in one month before recovering sharply in recent days. Oil futures have gained the most in about 6 years since post financial crisis. If this trend continues, October is going to be a cruel month for us if the MYR stays where it is now.

As expected we continue to see MYR weakening against USD with BNM trying to smooth the decline by selling some foreign reserves. From a low of 3.80 -> 4.19 (peaked at around 4.25), that's a 10% decline in just one month - the sharpest increase in a decade. Should the US Fed hike the interest rate in Sept by 0.25%, it will have some impact on our currency (small but not likely a big rout).

On the home front, we have a peaceful but necessary "BERSIH 4.0" over 34 hours. Super Moron isn't going to resign because he will go to prison if he does, anyway he has a My Second Home Programme in Kazakhstan. Neither of these will impact oil pump price. However it is also our Merdeka Day (31st Aug) - a sentimental and patriotic event for all Malaysians.

"Tough call" but I predict fuel prices to be kept at current pump rice (RM2.05 for RON95). I also maintain a small possibility that a small 5 sen cut is possible. Refrain from pumping petrol until 1st September, either way you don't lose anything. I cannot fathom that the price will go up, it is too "keji" for a Merdeka Day announcement, he is sentimentally dumb if he increases it.

Below are my previous predictions (thru emails, whatsapps, blog posts and word-of-mouth so I might have missed people out therefore decided to put it in blog is the best). **It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.** My predictions are based on WTI crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & politics conditions (which was added after May). My total savings to date: RM 36.75 (not very far off RM 42 and we are already halfway thru 2015)

Aug 2015
Oil is now heading to a new normal of $50 per barrel (down ~15%). No changes to my expectation of a continuation of a weaker MYR. I predict fuel prices to fall back 15/10 sen (RM2.00/RM2.05 for RON95). Worst case they will maintain it or give only a small 5 sen cut.
Ron 95 RM 2.15 (Jul) -> RM2.05 (Aug) (prediction set, saved RM 3.50)

Jul 2015
WTI crude oil future still very near $60, however the performance of the Myr has been abysmal. It continues to weaken from 3.65 to almost 3.80. I expect prices to maintain (RM2.05 for RON95). No harm to pump though, if there is a remote chance of increase it would be 5 sen. It is extremely unlikely to go down.
Ron 95 RM 2.05 (Jun) -> RM2.15 (Jul) (prediction set, saved RM 3.50)

Jun 2015
Oil per barrel still hovering near $60 and likely to be within this range. Myr has weaken again, now 3.67 and expected to weaken even more. Honeymoon is over. Like the u-turn on prepaid card GST fiasco, petrol will go up 20 sen.
Ron 95 RM 1.95 (May) -> RM2.05 (Jun) (prediction set, saved RM 3.50)

May 2015
Aboi's fuel price est for May. More likely than not likely to go up 10 sen on 1st May. Due to oil futures hovering slightly above $60 (up 10%) while Myr only strengthen by 3% against the US dollar.
Ron 95 RM1.95 (Apr) -> RM1.95 (May) (prediction off, should have factored in the two 'buy' elections)

Apr 2015
50/50 chance for price to remain or go slightly lower (5 sen/10 sen). It is highly not likely to go up.
WTI futures hovering at $50-55 instead of $60.
Offset by weaker ringgit RM3.70 instead of RM3.60.
Saudi declared war on Yemen but expected not to cause any break in oil production levels as of now.
Hence the bet best is to wait until April 1 to fill up
Unlike 28th no need to beratur...
Ron 95 RM1.95 (Mar) -> RM 1.95 (Apr) (prediction set)

Mar 2015
Time for my monthly update again. I expect fuel price to go up by 5 sen/10 sen in March.
This is because WTI oil futures is around $55-60 as compared to a month ago when it was $48.
Not likely to maintain prices unless gohmen wanna give you ang pow.
Don’t wait till 28th, later need to 'beratur'..
Ron 95 RM1.70 (Feb) -> RM1.95 (Mar) (prediction set, saved RM 5.25)

Feb 2015
I lost the original message. Continue to expect a decrease in pump oil price as per barrel dropped to $45. This is when America shale oil pumped record amount of oil and the Sheikh's continue to fight for market share at the expense of market price. If not mistaken I predicted a 10 sen drop.
Ron 95 RM1.91(Jan) -> RM 1.70 (Mar) (prediction set, saved RM 7.35)

Jan 2015
I lost the original message. Expected a decrease in pump oil price due to oil dropping below $55 per barrel. If I remembered correctly I estimated a 20 sen drop.
Ron 95 RM2.26 (Dec) -> RM1.91 (Jan) (prediction set, saved RM 12.25)

Dec 2014
Oil sinks after OPEC decides to hold onto production targets. Maybe some countries will go rogue (decide not to hold but decrease barrel production).
Oil 68.71-4.926.68%
Ron 95 @ rm 2.30 is based on $85 per barrel. So we should see it priced lower than RM 2.30 by December. Maybe rm 2.15 or rm 2.20? #tanyanajib.
Ron 95 RM2.30 (Dec) -> RM2.26 (Jan) (prediction set, saved RM 1.40)

**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**


Anonymous said...

I agree that price would not go up, but would target it at RM1.90 (±0.05) due to the APM system.


Stephen said...

Thanks for your report, Aboi... love all your articles.

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