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Decided to make adjustments on the way I blog & share due to time constraints and other commitments. In the coming weeks you should see them. Short updates but more frequent & concise.

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Aboi's Updates For April 2014

Here's the link for the previous month's market sense: Aboi's Updates for March 2014
For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.
  1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
  2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2

Recap my last month's commentary. 

[1] All tech indicators show that there is no support for a bull run in March. Volume is flattish, MACD showing crossover imminent while RSI has already passed the bull peak and will repeat the cycle again. Boring month for March. - The bear did came albeit it lasted only awhile until Bursa came back stronger than previous. Malaysia is after all a defensive market in the eyes of many foreign investors. 

For the month of April I've created two resistance lines @ 1850 (can be breached anytime) and 1880 (though it is highly unlikely). Three supports line namely 1825 (profit taking), 1800 (minor correction) and 1780 (major correction). Indicators are mixed this time. RSI and volume shows very little momentum to push the index higher. MACD still shows no imminent crossover. However I see no fundamental reason why the index would go higher at this month of the year though my end of year Bursa target is still 2000 (assuming no financial crisis)

As usual AMP Capital has a really good compressed weekly information (freely available, no sign ups) on weekly global market & global economic updates. It is usually updated every Monday afternoon so go read it when you have the time.

Second, my portfolio has fianlly corrected
I've lost roughly RM4500 but that's not really surprising. The increase of funds value did not compensate for the decline in equities; Supermax, Genting, Freight. iCap traded sideways. Boustead REIT was removed as it went private, profitable investment, profited 65% and put in cash again. All mutual funds listed gained in value and started pouring cash into Aboi To Finally Invest In Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund to get exposure into developed markets: US, Europe and Japan.

Portfolio composition. Equities 50%, Mixed Assets 15%, REITs 10%, Bonds 5% and Cash 20%.
Targets for returns p.a. Equities 12%, Mixed Assets 8%, REITs 6%, Bonds 5% and Cash 3.75%.
**HwangDBS Select Income fund gross income declaration of RM0.005/unit (reinvested all into 84 new units)
**Revised benchmark from 34.20% to the more accurate current rate of 40.00%    

#1 Portfolio target for the fourth portfolio year @ RM140k for April 2014 has already EXCEEDEDPortfolio target for the fifth portfolio year @ RM152k for April 2015. The TWRR (time weighted annual return rate is now at 11.32% vs my target of 8.80%).

Updated 'My Plan' for 2014
***Please NOTE that KEEP IN VIEW is not the final decision***
[1] Invest roughly 25% of cash balance in Aberdeen's Islamic World Equity FundCONFIRMED and I will do so via cost averaging method until June. Next cash in end of April.
[2] Invest in a new mREIT: Time To Revisit mREITS in 2014 KEEP IN VIEW, waiting for opportunity when yields are right. Still monitoring.
[3] Invest another fund, diversify further into small cap-medium cap companies where I have no exposure. KEEP IN VIEW, yet to do any research.
[4] Possible buy of gold commodity: Speaking Of Recent Gold Demand Trends KEEP IN VIEW, my opinion is that gold will see resistance at $1340. Gold is experiencing correction now, very promising.
[5] Par my remaining cash balance to 10% level. This will be done using my already 4 year old endowment fund with a projected 4% return p.a to better reflect my portfolio composition, currently the cash is sitting ducks with absolutely no returns. CONFIRMED but I have not decided how to integrate it into my portfolio. Will do this for May update.
[6] Taking a look (not invest) at Padini holdings. CONFIRMED and expect a post within this week.
[7] Put some cash into Fixed Deposit.  CONFIRMED.

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.


CT (penang) said...

a nice blog u got here. What do you think of the ultra high vol on 30 May? it look like a uptrust to me, although i dont see weakness in the background (volume for past few days looks normal)...

Intelligent Investor said...

Thanks for your compliment. I will provide my market update for June soon.

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