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Decided to make adjustments on the way I blog & share due to time constraints and other commitments. In the coming weeks you should see them. Short updates but more frequent & concise.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Aboi's Updates for Dec 2012

For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.
  1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
  2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2
Bursa has been bearish since the concluded US elections in Nov 4 and the "fiscal cliff" drama that has been unfolding. Up until the recent week things look to be improving as evident from the indicators. RSI indicator has finally broke the 30 and if momentum is supported could break 50 suggesting a true reversal trend. This impeding reversal is also supported by the 10-day EMA to 20-day EMA line, having seen the gap being reduced and if any indication of recovery we could see a crossover next week. Hence for the coming weeks we should look at the Support line for 1610 and Resistance to break at 1645. If things go bad the 2nd support line of 1590 should be taken seriously.

Spent two hours revising my portfolio outlook. Versus my older table I have streamlined it to provide more valuable information (benchmark, DCF fair value, ratings, dividends and basic portfolio information). *Note that the DCF values have been updated since Oct 2012 (in which I will post my re-evaluation articles in the coming weeks). Key updates for this month:

#1 Supermax and Genting continues to market outperform and is still a bargain. 
#2 Undecided to hold or sell Jobst due to an expected weak job market in 2013. Will hold until ex-dividend date Dec 10 and decide to sell by year's end.
#3 Freight is on hold until it appreciates. International trade outlook in 2013 does not look promising due to lack of demand.
#4 Boustead is on hold due to correction in CPO prices now. I am expecting commodity prices (gold as well) to go up higher in 2013 due to expected low interest rates.
#5 Maintain buy on iCap due to huge stock price vs NAV price.
#6 Maintain buy on SIF as bond market would continue to do well when low interest rate is maintained.
#7 Portfolio is on par with benchmark but my target is for it to perform better with a value of RM132,000. 

Trending to lose my goal for this year due to #1. Anyway for the coming weeks I would be looking into getting another or two equities into my portfolio (in event I sell Jobst), one more mREIT and another mutual fund. Cash is king now!! 2013 isn't any better than 2012 so we have to be cautious.

As an extra, my choice of BSDReit (Post) back in Aug 2010 has paid off handsomely as it has been the best performing mREIT in terms of total returns. Other previous articles: MREITs Part 1 and MREITs Part 2

Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.

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