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Sunday, January 9, 2011

Malaysia's Inflation Rate is Bogus

Inflation rate refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power. In Malaysia it is measured through consumer price index (CPI).
Our government has again and again restated and hold firm to the fact that the index is still hovering at 2%. Their worst case scenario include a figure only as high as 5%. How did they get those figures? Pluck from the air? Pull it from a magician's hat? Whatever it is, someone must have massaged the figures before it went live on our newspapers. And today's newspapers finally made me to write it out.

New sugar price for F&B manufacturers to impact consumers. F&N CEO Datuk Ng Jui Sia said he was confused, adding that the government normally announced any increase before such a notification from suppliers. Referring to the price for coarse grain sugar is now RM2540 per tonne up from RM1940 while that of fine grain sugar has risen to RM2620 per tonne from RM2020.

Coffee shops increase drink prices. It is difficult to find kopi-O below 80 sen any more. Those who were charging 70 sen before have increased the price by 10 sen or 20 sen. "Many raw materials like sugar, curry powder, evaporated milk and even plastic bags have gone up in price in the last few months.

Let's just take a look at the recent hikes:
Petrol prices: RON95, RM1.90 per litre up 5 sen (2.7%), RON97, RM2.40 per litre up 25 sen (11.6%)
Kerosene: RM2.50 per litre up 10 sen (4.16%)
Sugar: RM2.10 per kg, up 20 sen (10.5%)
LPG a.k.a cooking gas: RM1.90 per kg up 5 sen (2.7%)
From market: Kuih bulu 10 pcs RM1.50, now RM2.00 (33%), pork min RM2.00 now RM3.00 (50%), swiss corn used to be 70 sen, now RM1.00 (42.8%) 

Look at the figures, you call that a 2%? TNS u govt, get your facts right first. While it is true that we are the cheapest in the region in most items and subsidy rationalisation has to take effect, how do you plan to stop leakages and corruption? Oh ya by catching "small fishes" these days as have been published in newspapers recently. A few hundred thousands missing is nothing compared the billion you have ninja-ed from taxpayers.

If the argument bought forward by the govt saying that the increase by hawkers and sellers are not in tandem with the rise in raw materials then it is an invalid argument. CPI is supposed to be measured from the end-consumer perspective not from your own damn reference. Did the govt conduct any surveys before the price hike? No, so how do they come about the 2%. Of course ting tong tiang la (guesswork).

Our oil and gas (O&G) including automotive pricing mechanism is even more absurd. You can read it BN = Barang Naik! Premium Fuel RON97 Goes Up. Sooner or later you will see that cooking oil and electricity will go up, I have 95% confidence in this. What the govt needs to do is to show the people the real facts & figures, there is no point in lying as we can feel the effect at a much greater magnitude.

So the questions is, will I get a big salary increase as well? The answer is probably no, because most companies measure inflation rate from the figures given by the govt and well you do know now that the rate is bogus! There's many things to change in the country, including a simple thing as a percentage.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry, signing in as anonymous because I'm too lazy to sign in via other means... couldn't resist leaving a comment. Yup, totally agree. The inflation rate seems totally ambiguous. Coupled with the poor government of the country, the ringgit will probably devalue, leading to lower purchasing power of imported goods. This will make it really difficult for ppl to live comfortably.

Intelligent Investor said...

I suggest we 2.5 times the official figure given by the government

Anonymous said...

How can we expect the correct inflation numbers from Malaysian government, when majority of the top shots in government don't even understand basic economics!

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