Time 4 Revaluation!

It has been roughly 6 months since I have reevaluated some of my pickings. Most of them are using DCF and as such the input parameters in some of these values have changed in accordance to recent financial figures and economic conditions. The price you see are as of 04.11.10 trading at close.

EA2478 blue with belt RM36 @ LovelyClo

MAMEE RM3.48 fairly valued, aboi's fair value RM3.45
1. DCF of 13-15% discount rate change to 10%. (less discount for sound businesses as risk component is not high)

2. Revise revenue growth rate; GR from 7.5% to 8% (contributed to growing export market)

3. Profit before tax; PBT trending >10% (economies of scale & favourable agreement with key raw material suppliers)

4. Operating cost change from 92% to 90% (better margins seen in 2009 and 2010 from quarterly)

5. Risk come in bottom line impacting exports due to stronger ringgit.

6. Check out: 1H10 Results & Corporate Update Investors' Briefing

7. Other useful analyst reports: Analyst Reports by Investment House(s)

TOPGLOV RM5.77 above fair value, aboi's fair value RM5.10

1. DCF added in 2010 results. 2010 revenue previously estimated at rm1.7bil but 2010 report shows it reached the rm2bil mark.

2. Revise revenue GR from 10% to 12%. (still conservative)

3. Working capital now in tandem with revenue GR. (added in for better valuation)

4. Change operating costs margin from 90% to 87%. (operating efficiency)

5. Risks: Crude oil prices & stronger ringgit will impact its huge global export market, thus I am less optimistic about it's revenue for future.

5. Check out: Investor Presentation Dated 28 Oct 2010

GENTING RM10.68 undervalued, aboi's fair value RM12.25

1. Resorts World Sentosa is doing very well for its first year of operation, stock is undervalued as the financial gains have yet to be published officially.

2. Genting's financial year end is 31 Dec, stock is a good buy for appreciation until after CNY 2011 (March-April timeframe).

ICAP RM2.06 undervalued, aboi's fair value RM2.50

1. Tan Teng Boo's bigger holdings of Integrax, Parkson, Suria Capital, Boustead and Padini have all risen in share prices.

2. Net asset value as such has also increased thanks to bullish sentiments on these counters especially Boustead and Padini which are not exactly too overvalued.

JOBST RM2.90 above fair value, aboi's fair value RM2.70

1. Share soaring, boosted by the Government's Transformation Plan on 26.10.10 which promises to create more jobs.

2. Revise revenue GR from 10% to 12%. (more job creation & hunting)

3. Though 2009 has lower profit than 2008, for 2010 quarter-to-quarter it is doing better on all fronts.

4. Check out: Company Overview Dated June 2010

FREIGHT RM0.98 undervalued, aboi's fair value RM1.70

1. Consolidated results from annual report 2010.

2. 15% revenue growth is in line with previous estimates.

3. Check out: FY10 ResultsReview by OSK Research House

PARKSON RM5.96 undervalued, aboi's fair value RM6.60

1.  Previously covered just recently. For risk management: 15% discount would value it at RM6.00, at 10% discount valuing it at RM6.60.

2. It can be said that Parkson is between fairly valued to undervalued depending on your risk tolerance.

F&N RM14.30 overvalued, aboi's fair value RM12.85

1. Cumulative 2010 3rd quarter revenue GR of 7% is exactly the same as my previous estimate.

2. Nothing major except for more product launches, dairies and soft drinks.

3. Good night milk (new product) is amazing, you should try it :)

ZK1350 white RM37 @ LovelyClo