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Decided to make adjustments on the way I blog & share due to time constraints and other commitments. In the coming weeks you should see them. Short updates but more frequent & concise.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Oil Price Is Going Nowhere For A While

The original post is from the Economist :

From The Economist
Otherwise digest these points :
  • Fall in oil price has not curbed fracking as expected in America.
  • Fracking is getting "unconventional" oil out of shale, tar-coated sand.
  • New techniques to drill oil (horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing).
  • High production costs & heavy debts, more vulnerable to price shocks.
  • But more flexible, can quickly respond to any price rise.
  • Saudi refused to cut output to put American firms out of business.
  • 6 months later, little sign of bust in America's shale basins.
  • Saudi's plan failed, oil price to remain low.
  • Fracking have lead to a boom in oil and gas production recently.
  • American oil production is still growing, in March it rose by 120,000 barrels a day.
  • Frackers able to cut costs (labor, steel and other inputs has fallen).
  • Frackers also improved productivity and drilling efficiency - helped by technology.
  • America is replacing Saudi as world's swing producer.
  • America drilled lots of well and then plugging them, waiting for price to rise again.
  • Potential of 300,000 to 800,000 barrel per day may be started up when needed.
  • Unconventional oil gaining increasing share of capital investment.
  • Oil price picture - unlikely to rise sharply.
  • America will stop importing energy between 2020 and 2030.
  • Message from America - finance and technology more than a match for Saudi.
  • OPEC says America's oil boom will be over by year-end. Wishful thinking.
  • Shale revolution is marching on.

My thoughts : US is no longer dependent on Arab oil anymore. This is clear as we are witnessing a partial withdrawal of the US from the Middle East, hence the chaos. 

Meanwhile in Saudi, they have shown reluctant to cut output in order to maintain market share. In the long run this strategy will probably backfire. Why?

Currently the supply glut is supported by restocking activities (oil being stored in hopes that demand and prices will pick up later). [1] Demand will sap because China is growing at its slowest in 20 years. [2] Prices will likely tumble because storage facilities in Europe and Asia are already 80-85% full. Much more and they will overflow.  

Oil and gas income is still the backbone for the Malaysian economy. It accounts for 30% of government's total revenue. Again we are the spectators, too small to make a difference. Don't expect our budget to be people centrist for the next few years. We need to be prepared for a prolong spell of cheap oil.

Our weakening MYR (due to capital outflows) will more than offset any gains we get from cheaper oil. So yea, I'm not that happy either, I've said that before:

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

GST pre-digestion

Overall
Concluded that GST will have a MAJOR impact on our core inflation figure (will be higher) and prices will NOT go down contrary to state media. There is no such thing as deflation in a country when the interest rate is not even near zero. Take Japan and Europe as an example of deflation.

**My thoughts on the impact is highlighted in Red
**Please let me know if you think I missed something important out?
Other good reading: http://www.theantdaily.com/Main/GST-Does-the-gov-t-really-understand-what-essential-goods-are

1. Fuel
Ron 95, diesel and LPG (natural gas) will be exempted from GST. Only Ron 97 will be subjected to the new 6% GST.
-None, because if you can afford Ron 97 you probably are rich enough that the 6% is negligible otherwise the impact is none to usual consumers, even trucks are spared because they use diesel.

2. Utilities
Water is exempted. A household will only have 6% GST charged to the electricity bill for usage above 300 units. This means the first RM77 has not GST. Any amount after that is subjected to 6%.
-Moderate, this is a monthly expense. Assuming a RM250/month bill, you are looking at RM10 tax per month and about RM120-RM150 tax a year.
From Tenaga's webpage
3. Insurance
All insurance policies except for life insurance will be charged 6% GST. GST would also impact all traditional and investment-linked policies which had medical, critical illness or personal accident benefits attached. For traditional policies, the GST is imposed on the premium, while for investment-linked policies, it is charged on the insurance charges. For investment-linked policies, insurance charges will escalate with age because of higher insurance charges.
-Major, this is one of the worse because it impacts everyone regardless of age and gets increasingly more taxing as you age due to insurance charges. It is very difficult to estimate the cost because it varies according to age and what you have insured. I am looking at a RM500 impact on my yearly expense for having a traditional policy, two investment-linked policies and PA at age 29.

4. Credit Card
RM50 government tax is now abolished. However 6% GST is applied on the card's annual fee. It is said that this separate charge will clearly be reflected in your credit card statement.
-Minimal as it is once per year, cost can be reduced if you have fewer cards and if you manage to hold the bank hostage by asking the bank to waive the fee. RM24/year impact assuming you have two cards with RM200 annual fee each.

5. Books and e-books.
6% GST applies to all publications except the following: dictionaries, encyclopedias, newspapers, texts, references, works and religious books. And yes GST will be imposed on magazines.
-Minimal but actually it depends on what you buy, assuming half of the tax rebate of RM1000 goes to magazine you are looking at a RM30 cost per year. 

6. Housing
Basic construction materials are taxed: cement, bricks and sand. These make up 44% of construction cost and since GST will be charged cost will go up. Residential property including SoHo (small office/home office) will be exempted but not commercial properties.
-Minimal, some would argue with me that's ok we can debate over bf/lunch/dinner. Property companies expect GST to result in a maximum of 2.6% increase in house prices. However with the housing boom and asset peak already over, it is more likely than not likely that house prices will remain stagnant except for really prime locations. Why would BNM not use interest rate to defend the MYR? Because it knows that such a repeat would make us go back to 1999 crisis where house prices collapsed.

7. Automobiles
First, new vehicles will incur GST on the FINAL selling price of car (see pic). Please note that this includes margins, handling/inspection fees and accessories therefore the tax will be on a much HIGHER base than before. Second, used vehicles are not subjected to the current sales service tax but is also NOT under a GST zero rated item either therefore I suspect used cars are going to get big shock later once GST is implemented. Third running costs like motor insurance and servicing are subjected to GST. Only Ron95 petrol and diesel are off and so is license renewal and road tax but these are not high cost to begin with.
-Major, as mentioned almost every aspect of owning a vehicle is GST-able. Like insurance this is difficult to estimate and is based on the car that you own. You are probably looking at the thousands for a new car/used car and several hundreds for yearly running cost.
From Paultan.org, Malaysia's #1 source for auto news 
8. Banking
The RM1 MEPS fee charged when we withdraw from another bank’s ATM will increase to RM1.06. No GST will be charged if you make a withdrawal from your own bank’s ATM. Similarly, other services offered by the bank, such as money transfers (e.g. cashier’s order and demand draft), telegraphic transfers, money exchange, loan, cheque, credit card, and debit card will see 6% GST charged to its service, commission or subscription fee.
-Minimal, unless you do very very frequent transactions. Please note that this is GST on the FEE not the amount of the transfer/loan/credit/debit and etc.

9. Other Services
6% GST will be imposed on tuition fees, as tuition centres are not categorised under educational institutions. The price of beauty services like manicure, and hair and facial treatments will be subjected to 6% GST too. Massage services are also chargeable with the GST if the annual turnover for such businesses is RM500,000 and above. Aside from beauty services, cosmetics and other products for skin, hair and body care will also be charged GST. Beauty products sold at airports as duty-free items will NOT be subjected to GST.
-Major, the tuition fee is a big ouch as it is a monthly expense. For RM400/month, you are looking at almost RM300 tax a year. Beauty services and products will hurt ladies a lot. Depending on your monthly cost but it's going to probably be a few hundreds tax impact per year.

10. Restaurant
If you look at restaurant bills, you are already paying 6% government tax and 10% service charge. GST will replace the government tax and since both are taxed at 6% there is no difference. However because of the new tax regime, the GST is applicable on the service charge (service charge is collected by restaurants for services rendered and is traditionally set at 10%). Assuming a bill of RM100, currently you will pay RM6 govt tax and RM10 service charge for a total of RM116. With GST you will pay RM10 service charge and RM6.60 govt tax (110*6%).
-Minimal as this is a daily expense. If you frequent restaurants in shopping malls and spend roughly RM500, you are looking at an additional RM3 per month.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Aboi's Updates For February 2015

KLSE TECH REVIEW



Here's the link for my last month's market sense: Aboi's Updates for January 2015
For those who find it hard to follow I suggest reading through my previous posting on how I am using technical indicators as a trend seeker.
  1. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 1
  2. First Attempt on Tech Analysis Part 2

Recap - January's commentary. 

"As inflation goes up, Bank Negara will only have two real options. [1] sell foreign reserves to support MYR [2] raise interest rates." - On 28th Jan 2015, BNM has decided to maintain the OPR at 3.25%. Nevertheless the inflation impact of GST due in April is unknown (though for other countries inflation did went up when consumption tax was introduced in the following quarters).

"Because I do not believe that 2015 will be a good financial year for Malaysia I will spend more of my efforts to diversify globally and will need to do it anyway due to the need for portfolio rebalancing." - This still holds true. In fact research houses are expecting KLSE to only grow by 2-3% for 2015 and end between 1800 to 1850 points.

Apart from massive currency fluctuations around the globe (I will blog about this in a separate posting), the Malaysian market should be uneventful in February (along with CNY holidays). For the month of February, I will set the same resistance of 1800-1810 and revised the support line to 1760.

Key economic news and market update from AMP Capital's economic update (FoC, updated every Friday):
1. Oil bounced back a little, suggesting that $45 a barrel may be the baseline price for 2015.
2. European Central Bank (ECB) is embarking on its version of Quantitative Easing a.k.a print money. The Euro will weaken against other currencies, similar to the Yen when Bank of Japan (BoJ) did QE.
3. Greece far left party led by Syriza won election and now leads the government. Greece might face the possibility of an exit from the European Union. (though in my opinion this is not likely).

Portfolio - Healthy gains from funds and Supermx rebounded!
Just last month I mentioned that "Supermax was the hardest hit from rm2.35 to rm1.65 - backed by news that the CEO is charged for insider trading. Read more. Knee jerk reaction as Supermax is still business as usual." True to fundamentals I did not sell, it has recovered to positive territory at RM2.23. No need to panic if you did your homework well.

Gains were felt mostly from funds in January.
1. CIMB PRS Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity: -0.45% to 7.97%
2. Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund: 3.53% to 7.40%
3. AmDynamic Bond Fund: 3.91% to 5.51%
4. Kenanga Growth Fund: 40.77% to 48.62%

I will continue to maintain and add position in no.1 as mentioned before. "Private Retirement Schemes in Malaysia Part 2. I plan to triple my current exposure inside this fund in 2015." Aberdeen will continue to do relatively decent backed by a growing US economy (it has no position in Oil & Gas counters which explains why it did not suffer when oil prices plunge). AmDynamic Bond with exposure in the Asia region (where yields are still good) will continue to perform in 2015. The opposite is for Kenanga, with 100% exposure to Malaysia it will attempt to drift along therefore I am only holding it (changed from BUY rating to HOLD).  

"The shining metal - gold is stubbornly holding ground near $1200, still slightly above my target price. Continue to monitor and wait." - Due to the lunar new year, demand for gold will be strong 'seasonally'. Overall commodities still have the downward long-term trend (remember that a US Fed rate hike sooner or later will make a stronger dollar). 

And finally the Dynaquest Stock Performance Guide Sept 2014 has arrived. Expect stock analysis soon which I will begin with YTLREIT.



PORTFOLIO REVIEW
Portfolio target composition. Equities 65%, Bonds 25% and Supplementary 10%.
Targets for returns p.a. Equities 12%, Bonds 5% and Supplementary 3.5%.

Notes
-SUPERMX - Interim Single-Tier Dividend 4%
-FREIGHT - Single Tier Final Dividend 3.5sen
-Changed Kenanga Growth Fund from a BUY rating to HOLD.
-Changed Aberdeen Islamic World Equity Fund from a HOLD rating to a BUY.

Comments
#1 Portfolio target for the fourth portfolio year @ RM140k for April 2014 has already EXCEEDED. Portfolio target for the fifth portfolio year @ RM152k for April 2015. The TWRR (time weighted annual return rate is now at 8.99% (up by 0.78% from Jan'15) vs my target of 9.40%).


Disclaimer: The reports, analysis and recommendations in this blog are solely my personal views. I do not link to any investment body or company. As such, I will not be responsible of any of your investment decision. Consult your investment adviser or come to your own conclusions before making any investment decision.