August Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)

**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**

This is the 12th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).

Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75 and YTD: RM 3.25.

July 2016

Oil prices went down fueled by persistent global supply glut. Also due partly from Brexit, slower economic growth was revised for the rest of 2016. This factor together with high inventories for crude oil drove global oil prices into bear market territory. It remains that overall oil is projected to be in the $45-$55 range for some time.

Bank Negara made a surprising move to lower the OPR by 25 basis points. Naturally this will cause the Ringgit to be weaker but the impact hasn't been that large or felt. Brexit's impact will only be seen in late Q3 and Q4 for 2016, the heighten anxiety over it coupled with uncertainty makes it very difficult even for experts to gauge the real impact. Malaysia's export market to the UK is only 3% of our total so I would think not much would be felt domestically.

Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?

- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.

- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.

- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.

- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.

- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.
- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.

How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? 

- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.

Aboi's Aug'16 Prediction Analysis

RM/L between June and July strengthen: 1.72 vs 1.61 (back to May levels). Average oil price tapered from $50.28 to $47.71 (-5.11%) and MYR improved very slightly (4.08 -> 4.02), about -1.47%. Aboi's was right about last month's price increase but not the magnitude of it (missed out the Raya factor). Rakyat's sentiment has to be taken into account in the analysis; that will be the 4th factor after global oil price, performance of myr and politics.

This time there isn't seem to be any saving grace. Festivities are over and the 1MDB issue by DOJ wont be a damper on price so we should see actual prices to reflect this time, I will predict that fuel price to be increased by up to 15 sen to RM1.90 for RON95. Please fill your tank as soon as possible before the ensuing mayhem this evening - go out for lunch now :)

Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). My total savings to date: RM 50.75. As for YTD: RM 3.25.

**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the exact compute mechanism.**