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3: Malaysia REITs - Looking For My 2nd Durian Runtuh
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Head to the watch list on the above tab to see my what's on my radar and foreseeable future postings =)

Decided to make adjustments on the way I blog & share due to time constraints and other commitments. In the coming weeks you should see them. Short updates but more frequent & concise.

Friday, January 29, 2016

The Kerja Bodoh Continues

You can get the full list here (link). Our PM continues to show his *competency* in managing the budget just like how he did for: Budget 2016: Ini Kerja Bodoh (link)

The Cover of The Edge Malaysia - 29 Jan 2016

As expected ($32) from my previous post the govt has now changed the budget to be in line with an expected oil per barrel price of $30 to $35. Here are some of my selected highlights (NOT salient points) from Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's announcement of the following measures under Putrajaya's recalibration of Budget 2016:

EPF contributions by employees to be reduced by 3% from March this year until December 2017. Contribution rate by employers, however, remains the same.
Najib said the reduced contributions would boost spending by an estimated RM8 billion.
- More disposable income = more taxable income. Also with the extra money you will spend on goods which are likely to be GST-ed. Didn't they just say that 60% of EPF savers do not have enough. My advice is to opt back to 11%, do NOT rob your future savings. 
*Income tax is calculated based on the gross salary minus the individual tax relief (RM 9,000 per year) and monthly EPF contribution made by the employee (limited to RM 6,000 per year). No other tax reliefs have been taken into account for the income tax calculation.

Tax exemption of RM2,000 for Malaysians earning RM8,000 and below for the financial year of 2015, a move that would affect two million tax payers.
- I like this though as this will boost domestic demand and have a multiplier effect on the economy.

Food and cost of living
Cash aid programme BR1M will be continued: "The government will not compromise on what is right for the country and people," Najib said.
- BR1M does not really help in terms of solving the financial problems faced by the people since it is only a one-off monetary aid. Instead, the Government needs to come out with long-term measures like improving productivity = increase wages. Handouts are commonly demonized for its social corrosiveness for breeding laziness and dependence.

Housing
For new housing developments, sale of houses priced not more RM300,000 to be limited to first-time house buyers.
- Does nothing but to distort the market further. First: banks are tightening now; it helps little if the buyer still could not secure the housing loan. Second: this can only work in tier 1 cities (Penang, KL and JB). Nak beli rumah kedua kat Kangar macam mana, kena cari >300k? Third: will drive demand for investors towards the higher range which in turn will fuel potential bubbles due to overcrowding.  

Improving revenue collection
Optimise revenue from telecommunications by redistributing bidding processes.
- This is stupid. This is more or less an indirect tax to the telcos. Already at yesterday's closing nearly RM10 billion market capitalization was wiped out of the big three: Axiata (-10.31%), Maxis (-6.36%) and Digi (-4.31%). The private sector do not like nasty surprise, stability is the key thing in creating a conducive free market.

Civil service and government-linked companies
Government to keep its promise of July 1, 2016 additional salary increase for civil servants.
- Why do we keep growing the operational expenses? It's already a record high of 82% of our national budget. Banyak cantik. Banyak bodoh.

Education and scholarships
The National Scholarship Programme (Program Biasiswa Nasional) will allow 20 top SPM-scorers to pursue their studies in universities abroad;
The Bursary Programme (Program Lepasan Bursary) for 744 students to pursue their undergraduate degrees in public and private higher education institutions in the country
- Poor kids. Bursary recipients in tears after budget revision (link). This is not the Asian financial crisis. Education is the last thing that should be cut for its economic gains in the long run are tremendous. Here we are sacrificing not just the budget but our brightest minds.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

February Prediction of Pump Oil Price (Ron 95)


**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**


This is the 8th time I'm posting my prediction in a blog posting. Please bare that I will repeat some lines for new readers :) Also I always care to post my predictions before any official news or other analysts have given their views (typically too late after the queue starts at the stations).

Why is this sort of important? Say every month you know ahead of official price announcement and let's assume there is a price swing on average of 10 sen per month and you can fill in 35 litres. 0.10 x 35 x 12 = RM 42 savings a year. Obviously you don't feel it's a lot but every year you will always call and beg for credit card waiver of RM50 on govt service charge? Ironic isn't it? :) My total savings for 2015 is: RM 50.75.

Feb 2016
Crude oil price resumes its free fall towards the high $20s but managed a small rebound to the range of $30. US continues to add more to its stockpiles and crude inventories continue rise. Also Iran has completed the nuclear deal and is poised to add as much as 500,000 barrels a day, which in a market that is already oversupplied by over 1 million barrels per day. Learn About The Oil Crisis (link)

MYR's performance was a bit eventful; it weakened after the US fed hike but towards the last week of the month it went down to the level it started of in the month of Dec. I suspect that our central bank (BNM) may have sold some reserves off to fend the Ringgit but I can only confirm this when they release the data on the 29th of Jan. Again I think this is about where MYR will stand so it's time to change foreign currencies back to MYR, hold cash and wait for "jualan harga murah". Will 2016 Bring a Bear Market? (link)

We also have the so called budget re-calibration on 28th of Jan; this is because our original budget is based on the assumption that the oil price holds steady ~$48. Clearly this is not the case, the new normal should be $32. It remains to be seen what will be cut from the Budget. There are also rumours that RON 95 will be GST-ed and that a floor price for RON 95 will be introduced because our coffers are running dry.

Some asked why did the price of crude oil drop in 2015?
- Strong US dollar; all commodities are priced in dollar and that includes oil.
- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); refuses to cut production in order to maintain market share.
- Oversupply of crude oil; thanks largely to US shale oil producers which is now the world's biggest swing producers.
- Declining demand; world's no.2 economy China is slowing.
- Iran nuclear deal; removes Western sanctions and thus allowing country to export oil once again.
- Successful Paris climate change breakthrough talks; marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.

How come our pump fuel price did not drastically drop in 2015? 
- This is primarily due to weakening MYR to the USD.




RM/L has dropped a lot again from 1.77 (Nov) -> 1.50 (Dec) -> 1.25 (Jan). With such a drastic drop there is no doubt that I will predict that fuel price will drop by 15 sen +/- 5sen. There is no need to rush to the petrol station, please wait until after the announcement on 31st and fill your tank on 1st February (Monday).

Below is a table of my previous predictions way back to the beginning of 2015. My predictions are based on Tapis crude oil price, performance of Ringgit (added after Mar) & domestic politics (which was added after May). My total savings to date: RM 50.75 (I will reset the amount for 2016 starting next month)





**It is easier to predict the direction of fuel price than to estimate amount of swing of fuel price due to the government REFUSING to disclose the compute mechanism.**

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Feng Shui Index Believe It or Not?

As is tradition, the annual CLSA Feng Shui Index offers an alternative look at what’s in store for you and the Hang Seng, more for your pleasure than profit, but you never know, you may just get lucky! It is usually published days before Chinese New Year.

Look below and its eerily familiar between CLSA and the actual index for year 2014 and 2015. Also the Kuala Lumpur CI correlates well with the Hang Seng Index (at least for 2015 that I've checked).

If you believe in Feng Shui, may the force be with you for 2016 (I will post when the new index is out).
CLSA Feng Shui Index 2014
Actual Hang Seng Index 2014
CLSA Feng Shui Index 2015
Actual Hang Seng Index 2015